The APPLE Crash

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by GrandSupercycle, Feb 9, 2012.

  1. Lesson Learned: Don't Try to Predict Pullbacks in Screaming Uptrends!

    Behind The Money
    By John Melloy, Executive Producer, Fast Money
    Morgan Stanley proposed a bull case for Apple that would drive the iPhone- and iPad-maker’s stock price to $960 or higher, the first forecast from a Wall Street analyst on the company to approach $1 trillion in market value. Apple’s stock soared to a new all-time high following the call.

    The price target valuing Apple at about $900 billion ($960 x 932.37 mln shares outstanding) is based on businesses adapting iPads, a new iPhone running on a faster wireless network and emerging market growth. The forecast represents a 69 percent gain from Tuesday’s close.

    “Despite being well above investor expectations we view our CY13 bull case (of) $80 EPS/$960 valuation as reasonable,” wrote Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty in a note to clients. “We assume no multiple expansion despite a possible dividend.”

    Apple shares are up 44 percent this year after selling an astounding number of iPhones and announcing a new iPad last week. The stock surpassed Exxon Mobil as the most valuable company in the world earlier this year and has a current market value of about $540 billion.

    The amazing move in Apple this year has many investors (and now one analyst) thinking the company could be the first to reach $1 trillion in market value, a milestone that Wall Street once dreamed about for companies like Cisco and Microsoft during the late 1990s. Those dreams were dashed after the tech bubble burst and sky-high growth multiples of 30 times – even 50 times – earnings came crashing back to earth. But unlike back then, Apple’s price-earnings ratio is currently just 17.

    Morgan Stanley’s Huberty put a base case price target of $720 on Apple in the report, up from her previous target of $515. The less-bullish price target would occur if “China Mobile and TV catalysts don’t materialize,” she said in the report. Both cases are based on a price-earnings ratio of 12, which is at the low end of Apple’s historical forward P-E range, according to the analyst.
     
    #181     Mar 14, 2012
  2. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Hmm, if they think $720 is conservative, and think $960 is very possible, why does Grand_Super_Cycle think that AAPL is a screaming short at $478 ??? Did he research that call, or just look at a chart blindly with no concern about fundamentals.

    Of course, anyone following Grand's advice lost 23% in one month ( as of close today ). 23% is well beyond the normal threshold for determining you missed something.
     
    #182     Mar 14, 2012
  3. i would be willing to bet price goes below 100 points from today's closing price easy. the problem is when and how much higher it goes first. odds are you go broke before you pick the right time.
     
    #183     Mar 14, 2012
  4. Perhaps the same faulty logic you used when you recommended RIMM at $130+.
     
    #184     Mar 14, 2012
  5. How do you like them Apples?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf0OFZexRGs
     
    #185     Mar 14, 2012
  6. AAPL has to pull back and consolidate at some point. After it does, it will be time to add-on for the next leg upwards. Chances like this don't come along very often. How Sweet It Is! :D
     
    #186     Mar 14, 2012
  7. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Ya, that's like when you shorted PCLN at $100. You are famous on the exchange for holdng that position.

    ps I can make stuff up to.
     
    #187     Mar 14, 2012
  8. i saw this movie and it always ends the same. its valued to high for current products. if your trading the chart your good if your trading the crash that won't be on the chart its news related.
     
    #188     Mar 14, 2012
  9. cqm

    cqm

    I wish next week's weeklies were trading today!

    I bought some lottery tickets, 555 puts on the weeklies! my long gained more than the value of this lottery ticket today, so it is very good.

    the trade was based on the AAPL monthly option pain location. seen apple and other stocks drop 5% on pain, even though I am not a "pain theorist"

    I think throughout the day the put and call open interest adjusted to reflect current prices though.

    but we still have multiple gaps to fill...... I want to see a hard drop on friday morning after ipad is in the wild
     
    #189     Mar 15, 2012
  10. Like you recommendation to go long on RIMM at 61.92?

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3052892&highlight=rim#post3052892
     
    #190     Mar 15, 2012