The "Aha" Moment!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Sweet Bobby, Jan 19, 2019.

  1. slugar

    slugar

    As long as he or she has a backtested proven edge
     
    #91     Jan 23, 2019
  2. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Which one of these trades is riskier?
    Purchase here with a 4 point stop and target 24 points?
    [​IMG]
    --Or purchase here with a 4 pts stop and target 9 points ?
    [​IMG]
     
    #92     Jan 23, 2019
  3. slugar

    slugar

    1st one in my opinion because the odds are better to move 9 points vs 24
     
    #93     Jan 23, 2019
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    Here's how "PRM" worked for me today. I tried to let my winners run, but it was cutting the losers short bit that got me.
    clockworksum2.JPG

    I used to believe in the bullshit of "cutting losses short and letting winners run" idea. But that is not PPM. (Prudent Profit Management.)

    I did much better in the past following my plan, and when the plan failed, developing another plan to back up that first plan. None of it involved PRM. All PRM involves, (which B1S2 territory seems to mean stops), is loss after loss after loss. STOPS ARE A PRUDENT WAY TO LOSE YOUR MONEY EACH DAY IN A LARGE-RANGED FUTURE INSTRUMENT, THESE DAYS.

    That just is not parlay to proftitay. Ix-nay on the PRM-ay. Mmmkay?

    B1S2, I like you, you are a cool frood. But stop with the PRM nonsense for a while. Seriously, it is not really an edge, it is more a blunt curmudgeon to blunt people from their true trading freedoms.
     
    #94     Jan 23, 2019
  5. themickey

    themickey

    Perhaps try just trading the first 2 hours of mkt open.
     
    #95     Jan 23, 2019
    birdman likes this.
  6. Overnight

    Overnight

    Yeah mickey. This was a kind of extreme day. I knew, and saw that I was supposed to stop around noon time. I just kept flowing with it, but to be honest it was a good day. I got to feel something I have not in a long time...Day-trading greed. I have seen this in my sim trading, but I got caught up in something very unexpected...The 7,000 Nasdaq magnet.
     
    #96     Jan 23, 2019
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    I'm out of time tonight to think further on it, but this was a definite thing today. I watched this 7000 Nasdaq magnet work it's thing for over 2 hours. The price would simply not go above or below more than about 11 points from the baseline of the 7,000 Nasdaq. And then the shit shot up to about 7020...And stayed there! Again, another stagnant baseline. The latter being pegged right at the previous open. Weirdness, man.

    mwnqchart BS.JPG

    Look at the chart from 1:30PM to 3:20PM. 7,000 was a weird magnet which drew all prices to it. And at 3:20ish? Total dead zone, and another magnet for prices. WTF.
     
    #97     Jan 23, 2019
  8. schweiz

    schweiz

    I would like to give some constructive critics.

    When I watched your trades and the chart of the NQ I made the following reflection:
    I think you should change your strategy and not trade such a small timeframes. You did 39 trades in a market that had at least one big move, but still ended up with a big loss. You hugely overtrade. Try to find the trend and let the profits run. You should have taken at least a big chunk in the move down. Afternoon was less trending and we see that clearly in your results as then you were pilling up the losses. Your average loss is also to big compared to your average profit. You cut your profits and let your losses run.
    Your average losing trade made a loss of $250 and your average winning trade made $84 profit. You need 74.85% of winning trades just to be break even. So you can never make profits with these ratio's.

    Go to larger timeframes and try to define the trend. Then just follow the trend. Far less trades, far less stress, and far more profits probably. I traded the ES which made basically the same moves. I took the drop almost completely and took in the last hour still a decent long. I missed in the afternoon a big part of the pullback, but what you miss is not important, only what you take is. So just 2 trades and a decent profit. Not trading is also trading. You don't have to jump in and out all day to be profitable. Be very selective.
     
    #98     Jan 24, 2019
    Hideyoshi, Gedman, Overnight and 4 others like this.
  9. volpri

    volpri

    The same in terms of SL but the latter has less of a chance of rendering the desired results. Doesn’t mean it won’t but but just has less of a probability. The latter is generally not a good trade or one I would want to take in terms of going long.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2019
    #99     Jan 24, 2019
    slugar and Buy1Sell2 like this.
  10. volpri

    volpri

    Plus on days the Naz and ES are pretty much tracking together you can take the same trade in both. If YM is tracking in cahoots that is a third trade. Trifecta.
     
    #100     Jan 24, 2019
    Overnight likes this.