A few of the other strips I track look the same. Once the London 30 day confirmed negative near $60 WTI, all hell broke loose. That London confirm was a great tell as it came near the highs.
speaking of....so far, z/z cl is on a hard A-up, and back into yesterdays failed Aup range and flat price really not responding, with only a feeble attempt out of the OR. HO definitely lead in rotation....for us, we are keeping any energy length to HO and applicable inters for now. Bonds on a failed A-down this morning....I don't trade index products, and rarely rates, but makes a guy wonder if people have given up shorting the SP and are taking risk bets in the long end....
yeah, Z/Z had a pretty uneventful opening range this morning. it makes for tight Alevels and usually leads to less effective fades.
Just making sure I understand what you're saying. Is the number line score an example of a first order effect? And something like the 5-day change a second order effect?
Z/Z back to unchanged. Had it had a slightly larger opening range, this would have been another failed Aup for you. Maverick taught me the importance of being familiar with the wide/narrow opening ranges and how they ultimately effect how wide/narrow the Alevels are. If your Alevels are a lot more narrow than usual, price is naturally going to be more inclined to make confirmed A's.
also depends on your timeframe / size of OR....it WAS a failed A-up for us. Obviously not for everyone, but on that particular spread right now, we are using a 10 min OR with A levels at 8 cents. Agree on wide / narrow. We also look at width of OR vs overnight range. Flat price CL was great example of that....OR was just over 50% of total overnight range, makes it very choppy usually
gotcha, guess i was confused by your terminology of "Z/Z on a hard Aup". I thought you meant it was making an Aup for you.
I see...when I said "hard" I meant it went to a-up but so far (when I wrote it) was having a hard time sustaining. For us it confirmed the a-up, but flat price was failing to move out of OR, so we were looking for either a confirmation move in flat price or the a-up in the spreads to fail. Obviously the latter occured. We very much use ACD as a gauge, not a hard and fast rule...I think this has been discussed and utilized by folks a lot smarter than me in this forum before.