I'm tempted to load up on USD.JPY but the market has another couple of opportunities to get its knickers in a twist, default tomorrow and referendum result, not to mention assorted people talking about this and maybe spooking the market. Looking at the chart back to 2008, the recent dip is not outstanding, especially when viewed on a log scale. Much worse in 2009 and 2010 for example, so perhaps we may see more downside.
Anyone have any thoughts on heating oil? We have flirted/failed with this level at 18200-18500 (Aug contract) all month. The close today confirms a monthly and weekly A dn for me but being the last day of the month I am a bit hesitant. Still being early in my weekly session, I think its worth a shot and might wait and see if I can sell into a failed intra-day A up tomorrow. Also at the back of my mind is the 1st 2 weeks of July coming up and how, in ACD land, this is a time period known to start trends. Previously I mentioned how we had been hanging between my qtr A up and yearly A up for almost 2 months and I am probably taking a dose of hopium here but my thoughts are that we move lower from here starting with this event today. One of the things that goes against this theory is that crude and rbob dont seem to share the same sentiment that heat does so this could turn out to be nothing significant especially if crude decides to go the other way.
This is a really great and insightful post Mav. The chart is very interesting to click through. Thank you sir!
Went short anyway. Initially got in with just half size, then doubled down when it looked like crude failed at the A up. Not only that, went short rbob also. Needless to say took a serious ass whooping today. The cracks shot up and stayed up most of the session and just didnt let up. I just cannot believe we failed yet once again at this level. But its still all good. Lots learnt and a bunch of maturity/humility gained
FWIW, I still have RBOB in a confirmed 30 day number line. Also WTI holding near the highs of this range is awfully suspicious.
I still like the rbob/ho spread. That's a better way to short ho right now as long as rbob stays confirmed.
Haven't been on ET in years, and honestly, this thread brought me back. Good conversation on a method I use to compliment my own strategy in energies. Just out of curiosity, does anyone here do any business through MBF? I know once the NYMEX floors bit the dust MBF dropped their FCM status and became an IB, do they still put out their daily ACD levels, or did that find the chopping block as well? That outfit as well as GRI put out some of the most actionable (IMO) information for a long time.
Well, you were right on the money. Could you please elaborate on your WTI comment when you get a chance? Was it the crude NLs or were you also considering other factors like the dollar index strength for instance? I had a failed monthly A dn in the beginning of june that made me biased long for most of month. I got a good trade in rbob which made it all the way to the monthly A up but crude did not. I anticipated that I was in the right direction looking at what the dollar index was doing and for a few days, the movements seemed to correlate between the two but then crude hit a wall around 62 and just rotated between my qtr and yearly A up levels. I thought we would hit 63 (back in the Jul contract, now around 64). Clearly, I am missing a lot of things. Thanks again.