I concur with what DT3 said. Gold popped on Yellen's dovish posture and kicked that can nice and hard into the next zip code. I doubt there will be any follow through on that though. The bond market smells a rat.
From time to time I like to recommend good books when I find them and I have one here for you guys. http://www.amazon.com/Expected-Retu...d=1434937368&sr=8-1&keywords=expected+returns It's a heavy book but very thorough. Explores every asset with hard data going back almost 100 years breaking down the real returns of each asset class as well as popular trading strategies. You definitely want to check it out.
Hello Mav, Now that's funny as I just logged on for the first time this weekend (played a few gigs and it takes it out of this old R&R fart.) I have pages of questions but ..... I don't want to be "That guy" but ...... I will be You have never really discussed how you decide when a confirmed 30 day has lost it's confirmation? I recognize that it might change due to circumstances but perhaps a general guideline if you will (if you follow Fisher's criteria then I know what that is). Thank you sir. ps: Looks like some great posts to go through. Thanks to you and all the other posters who contributed. Best stuff!
Played a few gigs? What are you in a jazz band or something? If a 30 day confirm confirms a monthly or QTR A down, I usually leave it alone. If it confirms a weekly I'll leave it alone for that week. Also the reset around the zero area usually means it needs to re-confirm again for me. Don't get too caught up in hard rules with absolute numbers and levels. Markets are not that accommodating.
Is the Dow Jones Transportation ETF (IYT) ready to move up? My 30 day went positive back on 4/23 and then the subsequent price patterns were all lower tops. But, the 30 day has stayed positive. The obvious includes a) a short term triple bottom b) a resistance trend line and 50 dma that have held the last few lower swing highs and could appear as potential resistance and c) RSI and Stoch in approximately the 50% area (which many folks want for upside potential). The not so obvious has strong monthly numbers and a confirmed 30 day. Last Wednesday had a failed Weekly A Down and then a Weekly A Up on Thursday. The Quarter A Up (yes it’s getting long in the tooth) is in the 161 ¼ area.
Hate that trade. Failed QTR A down...Failed monthly A up....looks like a pain in the ass trade to me. LOL.
Old fart rock and roll band. Play guitar and sing rather shitaly. Thank you sir for the info. If you're a father Mav .... Happy Father's Day.
Oh I knew there was something I was forgetting....STPP!!!!! I've mentioned this ETF several times. It's the long yield curve ETF. Nice move. It's outperformed the ES this year 3 to 1 with probably half the risk.