Buy pukes in strong number lines. Very simple. Puking action is almost ALWAYS bullish. If I had to guess maybe 95% of the time. Markets don't roll over on pukes. Buy em up. Same goes for spikes in weak number lines. That strategy will outperform the indices for the next 100 years but requires patience and work. Thank God most people have neither. My health couldn't be better. Knock on wood. Thanks for asking Robert!
Stock volatility is nil. Yet, as you had been pounding the table regarding currency volatility Months or (year?) ago i assume you cast cast a wider net than stocks. In fact i know you do. Bonds as well are volatile. Much more interestimg than stocks. Any thoughts to share on major pairs and treasuries and european bonds?
Japan is obviously in focus right now with the Yen pairs going vertical yet again. Also Europe is very interesting. Currencies don't get volatile for no reason. I don't think most people understand just how much pressure it takes to move pairs a meaningful distance. It's not like stocks where SHAK can squeeze 10% on air. If the EURO or Yen crosses are moving 2% it's not because grandma is liquidating her IRA. It's because someone is moving 100's of millions of dollars FAST. They are paying a huge premium relatively speaking for that liquidity so if they could afford to work the order they would. The fact they are choosing not to do that should tell you all you need to know. Bond volatility could get very ugly soon. The notional amount of exposure through all the various derivatives is beyond mind boggling. There will be books written about it when it's all said and done.
One major change I would mention is that I express a lot of my trades via options vs the underlying and in the energy markets a lot of my opinions are expressed through the forward curves. I'm always looking to optimize where I can.
nice to see you back Mav, unless you are posting this from lower Wacker Drive, what are your thoughts on this grexit, its a meandering situation which is creating some vol around the euro stock indexes, is there any data on probability of an exit?
Welcome back! I think social media can help a person grow just it depends who is in your social circle. Like in real life...
I bought some. I believe Kuroda as much as those emails that I am Nigerian prince I have weekly MA @122 (also previous resistance) so I would be worried if it spends significant time/closes below that. M A down @ 122.71 (failed for now). Other than that it is still breakout in progress for me so it seems like an opportunity. We will see...
King, I think Japan has a much more clearer forward picture then Europe. I personally think Greece is already gone and actually priced in to the market. But Europe is going to be very messy. Japan on the other hand is a one way train. There is no doubt in my mind we will see a 250 USD/JPY at some point in the future and most likely 150 before the year is up. Also watch GPB/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY. To me this is the most clear macro trade out there. No, it's not going to go straight up with no pullbacks. No you can't just be long without a stop. I suspect a very ugly pullback is in the making soon. Remember, the uglier the pullbacks, the more bullish the move. Buy the puke!