The ACD Method

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sbrowne126, Jul 16, 2009.

  1. ignl

    ignl

    Sorry I forgot to save file before uploading. There are data on more currencies. Attaching a new one.
     
    #8941     Aug 1, 2014
  2. Very interesting to me, thanks. :)

    I have been trying a 30 minute OR at the London open, but score on a 24 hour day. Sometime in future I will need to isolate the Asian session and see what difference this makes. Observation from the scoring process is that there is often a move back into the OR or even across just before the London Open, but no stats on this.
     
    #8942     Aug 1, 2014
  3. DT3

    DT3

    The EUR/USD figure has to be off right? Very interesting stuff thx for posting.
     
    #8943     Aug 1, 2014
  4. ignl

    ignl

    Yeah those are preliminary results I need to check my code as EUR/USD is really a red flag that something is wrong :) Will update later with new findings. I'm not strong at math, but my calculation would be that there are 14 hours from 3 am to 17 pm that means 28 30 min intervals. So there should be 1/28(3.5%) probability that interval is high of whole session and 1/28(3.5%) probability that interval is low of the session. That would be ~7% percent probability that interval is low or high of the session. ~30% for opening range would look quite good then. Let me know if my math is off :)
     
    #8944     Aug 1, 2014
  5. Either high or low of 2 independent events:

    = (0.035+0.035) - (0.035*0.035)
    = 0.068775
     
    #8945     Aug 1, 2014
  6. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    ISEE 43 reading on Friday. Has to be at or near all time low.
     
    #8946     Aug 2, 2014
  7. koolaid

    koolaid

    so according to these extremes, low readings indicate mass fear and put buying; thus, a bullish contrarian indicator?
     
    #8947     Aug 2, 2014
  8. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    No. It's not really meant to be used like that. The indicator is sold as more of a trend. The trading signals are really generated when the moving averages of the ISEE reading get to extremes. In other words, when you get a huge series of extreme readings. I have noticed when you have spikes on one day at the end of "long" moves it tends to give a great warning sign. Well, a 3 day selloff does not qualify as a long move. LOL. Now a reading that low obviously shows the panic that overcame this market from what was some very high call readings. And that print that I posted a week back was really a series of really high prints that I have noticed for about a month now. So it really wasn't just "one" day. I do think you can probably get a bounce off that reading for a day or two but my opinion is to avoid the index markets altogether. It's going to be really messy now for a few months after that long sustained smooth rally. Markets don't just race back to the highs and they are not just going to roll over nice and smooth. It's going to be very choppy.
     
    #8948     Aug 3, 2014
    logicaltrader likes this.
  9. Bsinks

    Bsinks

    Good to see other traders using the ACD method.....soybeans is one of my favorite instruments....it moves like a freight train......I'm having trouble getting data for Coffee and Sugar.......the little back testing that I have done on Coco and Corn looks a little thin to me........maybe I need to change the OR times.

    Also me and another ACD trader have a free chat room where we can share screens and talk about set ups......send me a PM with your e-mail and we can send you an invite to join the room
     
    #8949     Aug 3, 2014
  10. Bsinks

    Bsinks

    Corn chart for Friday
     
    #8950     Aug 3, 2014