Mav, In the past you would mention that didn't use a rolling 30 day number line but used a monthly NL that reset each month, and gave some reasons for that choice such as the time horizon of your trades being such that values from 6 weeks prior were unimportant. But from your posts over the past year it appears that you started using a rolling 30 day again. Why did you do this? Not trying to copy you, but rather trying to better understand the ACD thought process of why one would use or not use certain things. I like reading stuff like that. It seemed like your reasons for not using a rolling 30 day all made sense, so am wondering what happened to change your stance.
I use different layers for different purposes. I have always used the 30 day number line. But the 30 day does not "trigger" a trade. Part of the reason for this is usually by the time we get a confirm in something, the product is overbought short term so I patiently wait for an entry. Except on FX where I usually start building a position immediately. The monthly is strictly used to "confirm" monthly A confirmations. So let's say Crude confirms a monthly A up but the monthly number line is a zero. I'm not going to buy Crude unless I get really good prices. Because the monthly number line is NOT confirming the strength on the monthly A up. I also use the 5 day rolling for this purpose. I like to see the 5 day at a +5 or higher on any triggers. The 30 day rolling number line serves a lot of useful purposes. Not only does it generate trade ideas but it KEEPS you in trades that are working. I can't tell you how many times I caught a move in something and said, OK, I'm out, good trade. Take this move in the ES as an example. It looked like it was running out of gas every 2 to 3 days. It confirmed 120 handles below the current price. It would have been very tempting to say, that's all folks. But the number line was on fire. This thing just kept making A ups day after day after day. And when it wasn't making A ups it was failed A down after failed A down every single day. The number line was screaming, no begging you to stay long. Along the same lines, let's say you "missed" the move in ES and said to yourself, it's too late, I missed the move. Well, the number line is telling you, no begging you, to reconsider. It's not saying buy the high of the day. But it's telling you to grab any dip you can find. A failed intra-day A down or failed weekly A down would work nicely. So the 30 day number line serves a lot of purposes. It's very versatile. Whereas the 5 day rolling and the monthly static number line have very narrow purposes. Hopefully that clears things up.
Well that didn't go according to plan. Long live the bull. Actually a nice failed A down on the SPY today.
AAPL already confirmed my monthly levels and getting close to hitting the quarterly just a couple days into the quarter :eek:
BigMike's website got shutdown....that is why he crawled back over here. I see he is back to his 100% winning trades again.
Good news is that the ACD method that he trades has a 100% win rate . Bad news is that actually pressing the button on those failed A ups is not as easy in real time. He's been at it for 3 years or more...even if the calls were hindsight for the first 2 years, he should have enough data to have the confidence to push the button by now
I honestly don't think he is even using ACD just making occasional references to it. He is trading crude intraday with 150 tick stops and trying to fade the extremes in the range. I don't even know what you call that.
Ah, I was wondering why he came back out of the blue. And you are right, whatever one may call what he claims to do, it is not the ACD that we all know.
Hey Mav, what do you think about USD/JPY? I've had my eye on it for a couple of weeks. It seems to be going nowhere but my number line has been strong despite that. So I have been thinking failed weekly A-downs would be good plays on this, or a breakout on a monthly A-up in July. July got off to a good start but it failed at the monthly A-up so no breakout trade yet. Am I on the right track with this? BTW thanks for the explanation and ES example. My number line was on fire as well and my thoughts were the same as what you described so nice to know I was on the right track on that one.