The ACD Method

I have only traded CL , so can not speak about NG. Hopefully soon, i will have skill set to trade other instruments .

 

I agree with all the points that people post here. Especially Maverick. I get it. I just want to talk about metrics. That is what matters.

Just want to point to over zelous people, that if your trading CL for example and the volatility is very high he may be making money regardless, what to really ask is what are the metrics. If you trade and make .50 cents in a 5.00 market move, what risk did you take to make that money ? That is what I wnt to point to.

Also, if you follow 1 -2 commodities and the volatility get low, very likley that he.she wont make money anytime soon. And unless you have a lot $ AUM, your going to have to live on cash. With this method per Mav. you have to be in front of the markets to execute, cant program them. If you stray from the 1-2 commodities you got used to and have to learn some mean reverting pos like ES, you may be in for a lot of pain "whil you learn nuances"



Thanks

 

Agreed 100%.

On a separate note, Per Mark Fisher indices like ES, YM etc.. are hardest instruments to trade due to their rotational nature with ACD method- at least for day trading. ACD is a breakout method and day trading ES etc. for breakouts is full of surprises to say the least.

Some traders seems to have lot of success using Volume/Market Profile to get clues into day trading ES etc..

 

when you say metrics I assume you mean how profitable a system is? if you could be more specific, it sounds like you are saying that traders are profitable due to vol. I can tell you that I have been trading 60 minute charts with scalps on the lower time frames. If you eyeball spy on a 60 minute frame you will see what I mean. Let me ask you whether you think someone should trade a system vs discretionary, there are pros and cons to both, I think a grey box can be profitable, there are times when you can override the system. It also has to do with the type of trading, product selection, etc.

 

Hi,

Which you choose is what is best for trader.

I am gettign at, discretion often overlooks what the risk reward actually is on each trade.

I was not aware of any scalping opportunities in SPY because I assume people with faster connections and or floor locations will out do me!

 

Market keeps testing lower end of pivot range after making an a-down.
It failed right at Mav's monthly/qtr level as well

 

Yup, that played out almost to the tick. Bonds also bounced off their monthly to the tick.

 

I will just say that one timeframe may be profitable/trending while another frame gets you killed. I have never been able to solve this riddle, it really depends on how the mkt is swinging I guess, nothing beats a good entry though. The high frequency thing presupposes that these guys know where the mkt is headed next they don't. Their term for losing is adverse selection. Most of the time they do well because the mkt chops back and forth a few ticks. There is a lot of mythology in trading, I mean cmon how smart were the LTCM crowd, they still had a flawed trading premise and got their asses handed to them.

 

Yup, they pushed down the SPY into the close last week even though it was a low vol day(holiday). Lets see what happens here

 

BTW, copper also failed at the monthly A up as did coca. The US dollar failed right at the monthly A down. Everything seems to be moving together lockstep.