Ya doesn't look like it wants to hold there for now. CL looks to me like it has shown a change in character. Was formerly lagging ES and has shown relative strength on this move up. Where's the monthly A-up?
82.85 Number line is going to hit plus 9 today. BTW, one of the things I have noticed in the past is that the plus 9 or minus 9 number line has many times acted as a barrier to momentum which makes sense if it breaks that number it leads to a breakout. So it's nice to see CL at a plus 9 at the same time it's right at the monthly A up. That means if it confirms an A up, the number line will confirm at the same time. See how all this stuff works together?
Bonds? What do you all think of the bond trade? It surely ended right about the time the FOMC announced Opp Twist officially a few weeks ago. I've been tracking the TLT and TBT, and man, that thing looks pretty smooth. Just look at today's action in the TBT, real nice opportunities setting up to go long every time it dips. Also, the reason why I could really get behind this trade would be that I think the bus people would say, "Are you nuts? The government is buying bonds, that'll put a floor under 'em! Don't short bonds!" Thoughts? Appreciate the feedback all.
Well, we had 3 monthly A ups in a row in bonds so they are definitely over extended. However, please keep in mind that selling bonds and buying crude and buying spoos and copper are all the same trade. The question is, if you want to get long risk, which asset is the best bet. Right now, CL is stronger then ZB is weak. CL is right at the monthly A up, bonds still have to drop 2 full handles to get there. CL's number line is plus 9, bonds are minus 2.
Let's take a look at the internal strength in the market. So I have a database of all stocks over $50 a share that trade at least 300k shares a day. From that list of stocks, we now have 137 monthly A ups compared to only 3 monthly A downs. That is showing a lot of strength. I point this out as a word of caution to anyone looking to sell these rallies. Having said that, tomorrow is a huge day with the jobs number and with the ES being right at the monthly A up which is 1165. If one wanted to get short any failure tomorrow at this level on a spike would be the time to do it. Number line on the ES is only plus 4. But if we confirm tomorrow, watch out. We are going to get the mother of all rallies. My QTR A up for ES is 1175, so we could easily spike into that level and fail. But if we take these levels out next week, things are going to get interesting.
Thanks for the info. Will be watching these levels closely. Does seem like this market has an underlying bid in it. After the ECB decided not to lower rates, I was expecting some sort of retracement after a big rally off of the lows, but we made an a-up and closed on the highs...says something. We will see tom!
Someone from the forum asked me if ACD can be auto back tested. I am sure other in the forum like maverick can answer that. Here is what I have done ; I have not auto back tested as i am not technically trained to do that. However, i have traded CL every single day of last year . I started from January of 2011 and physically replayed every single day and traded full length of every day. Think orSwim has a feature named ON DEMAND. One can basically pick up any trading day from past 3 years and replay it exactly the same way as it happened that particular day. For example, on this weekend, I randomly picked up 07/19 /2011 as a day to trade. I traded the entire day and traded my set ups per ACD. I have relevant information for that day, number line, pivot ranges, news at different time of the day etc.. just like LIVE trading. I routinely repeat this exercise whenever i have time. This is on Top of LIVE trading every day. Obviously this is very time intensive way to do it but I own ACD trading for CL now. I do not trade any other instrument as i do not have that much confidence. But with CL, i am pretty confident. I hope to find a way to auto test it for other instruments as I agree with Mark Fisher that ACD can be used for any instrument with sufficient liquidity and volatility. Plus as Maverick has pointed out numerous times trading same instrument day in and day out limits ones trading potential. If Copper has number line of 2 and CL has a number line of 9 with narrow pivot etc.. a trader should focus on CL rather than copper. So, I am actively looking to figure out a way to auto back test various instruments for ACD. Main issue is having a data to test it. One will need number lines, pivot ranges, macro news events etc.. to plug in to get a real sense. Otherwise garbage in, garbage out.