Of course you are always taking a risk. No one has said otherwise. The point of a spread is not to get rid of risk but to take risk. However, the spread allows one to create value where it might be lacking otherwise. All traders are seeking value, not risk free opportunities.
If you guys want to see something freaky, check out the volume of Puts purchased in SPX this morning for March Exp.
"Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion" http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...bet-on-the-sp-500-to-the-tune-of-1-3-billion/
Hello Mav, Do you keep the Mav Volatility Index (MVT) on JJC and TLT? I have a 9 on both of them and I was wondering if that's near your wheelhouse? Thanks
Is GLD setting up as a text book Mav Swing Trade? Monthly A Up then pullback and a failed Weekly A Down. My monthly A up was in the 123 and 1/2 area and my weekly A down is in the 126.2 area. It hasn't passed through that but it's close My 5 day NL is 0 and the MVI is 4. (Just a newbie talking to himself here.)
From one newbie to another: Although I dont track GLD and I am a day late because the move you were looking at has already taken place or started, I see the same thing - weekly A down at 126.2 and it failed. I have no idea about the relationship between GLD and GC but you probably know that GC had a failed weekly A up 2 days ago.
Yeah for anything that is "actively" traded over night, I use futures and a 24 hour day to calculate stuff. Although usually GLD and Gold futures are pretty close in terms of number lines, I have actually seen huge divergences between Gold and GLD, SLV and Silver and even Bonds and TLT/TBT.
Maverick, I was reading an old post of yours and had a question about the above. When comparing relative strength intraday, for example ES to CL or GC or ZB, does "same time frame with same OR" mean that you would set all the markets to similar start time with comparable OR time. (i.e. all markets with 9:30am ET open and 5 min OR), or does it mean the opening is market specific (i.e. ES could be 8:30am ET and CL 9am ET, but both with 5 minute OR)? The latter seems confusing, because you could technically have a confirmed A-up in ES and you would have to wait until CL "opened" to confirm or reject the strength of ES (by that time, you could have missed a big part of the move). I am trying to be more attentive to price action, but having trouble getting my head around watching multiple markets intraday with an ACD mindset. Any help in trying to think through this would be appreciated. Thanks very much.