Hey Mav, just wanted to thank you again for sharing your thoughts on this thread. Ever since I incorporated the longer term levels into my charts, everything makes so much more sense. I am still trading just CL but it does not matter. Before, there was no way I would have anticipated support at 96.30 and 99.20 to be the target for the week for instance. I really have the ACD lens now! Thanks again.
CL busting through the QTR A up for me. Going for a beautiful +3. Haven't run a number line on it in a while though.
I will have to figure out a way to trade this better given my capital constraints but in my head, I have been long every since the QTR failed A down around 11th-14th of last month Then lets count the opportunities to get long as I have learnt from Mav's posts. 01/21: After breaking into the yearly pivot we fail at its low and crack the high 01/27: Failed weekly A down against yearly pivot high 02/03-4: Failed weekly A down again and we close above monthly pivot Today: We fail at the monthly pivot high and make a monthly A up. I know everyone's levels are different but if it works for you, it works period. Now I have another confluence of levels between 100.65 and 101.
There are 9 pages in chapter 11 of Mav the ACD Mentor underground ebook that references chart examples. Here's the first three: 09-18-11 09:17 PM Page 88 I thought I would post a chart giving you guy’s ideas on how you can use macro ACD. This is probably more for RCG since he trades currencies. This is what my macro FX grid looks like. It's a huge grid of all the FX pairs in rows by the same currency. So we have 4 rows. We have the Euro pairs, the Dollar pairs, Yen pairs and the Swissy pairs. This is what my monthly grid looks like. It allows one very quickly to get a quick feel of where the real strength or weakness is. I want to note something on the dollar pairs. To make the visual easier, I inverted some of the pairs so all the dollar pairs have the dollar as the base currency. This allows your eyes to see the strength or weakness much clearer. For example, the 2nd row which are the dollar pairs, there are 3 currencies where the dollar is the non-base currency (yen, loony and swissy). By using a - sign, the currency will invert on the chart. So by taking a very quick glance at this chart, you can immediately see that the dollar is very strong against all the major pairs. The only pairs where there are no monthly A downs yet are the loony and the swissy. You can see this right away. Organizing information is very important to trading. BTW, I only inverted the dollar pairs but certainly you could do this with all the pairs to make it easier to compare charts. 09-21-11 04:17 AM Page 97 Here is a nice spread chart showing the smoothness of the spread between being long SPY and short FCX dollar neutral. Up 20% on the spread in the last 2 weeks. This is how you short the market and win whether it goes higher or lower. 09-21-11 04:30 AM Page 97 Here is a spread chart showing long SPY and short FXI. Yet another alternative to simply shorting ES. 10-12-11 10:26 PM Page 158 I'm attaching the monthly snap shot for the currency pairs. 10-20-11 10:19 PM Page 173 Since Sept 1st, if you were short the SPY, you would be down 1% to 2%. If you instead got short the market via the SPY/FXI spread I've been talking about the last few months, you would be up over 24%. I've attached the spread chart. I'm just trying to show creative ways you can be short the market without trading ES. 10-20-11 10:23 PM Page 173 Here is a spread chart of SPY over Copper. Up over 30% over the last 30 days and making fresh new highs. 11-10-11 03:37 PM Page 249 Here is a chart of long oil and short copper. Very smooth regardless of direction of risk assets. This is how you find alpha. 11-10-11 09:33 PM Page 251 Everyone seems to be on vacation but me. It's like a ghost town around here. LOL. I'm attaching my monthly FX montage to take a look at all these yen pairs that bounced off their monthly A downs. You'll notice EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY all bounced. As well as EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD. Why am I talking about this? Because: FX flows drive risk. Even if you only trade stocks or oil, you should be watching FX flows. They are outstanding tells. The fact that all the risk currencies held their monthly A levels at least for now, shows we might be able to push risk assets higher from here. But, if they all break down, then you want to abandon very quickly any buy the dip mentality. 11-10-11 09:51 PM Page 251 Since some of you guys had positions in the Aussie here is a chart of the A up it made overnight on the London session. You'll see that overnight low at par which was the monthly A down it bounced off. It's nice to see a pair make an A up off the monthly bounce. (5 minute chart) 11-10-11 09:57 PM Page 251 Here is the AUD/JPY. The monthly A down for me was 78.01. Actual low was 78.04! Once again, nice A up on the daily on the London session. 11-11-11 04:01 PM Page 254 Here is my London AUD/USD chart. Solid confirmed A up today and solid bounce off the monthly A down now. 11-14-11 07:43 PM I love when guys come on CNBC and get bearish on Crude. I for the life of me can't understand why so many so called commodity guys don't look at price action. Yes, Crude has gone from 75 to 100 pretty quickly but more importantly, you have to observe how price is "acting" at these levels. WTI is actually acting really well here with ES near the lows of the day. One of the drivers of WTI has been the spread trade between Brent and WTI. This spread is starting to collapse. And all the spreaders are short WTI and long Brent. The more this spread collapses, the more buying pressure on WTI. I am attaching the spread chart of Brent over WTI. 11-14-11 08:35 PM BTW, here is the Brent/WTI spread over the last week. As you can see, getting crushed. This means traders are buying WTI and selling Brent to get out of the spread. This has been putting a bid under WTI. 11-17-11 04:19 PM Page 284 Aussie dollar has twice bounced off the intra-day A down. Not saying it's wrong to get out here. But I think the monthly A down at par will probably hold. We may probe it, but probably won't confirm. 11-18-11 08:11 PM Page 296 This is basically what we are dealing with today folks. These are the 9 SPY select sector ETF's. It's a good way to get a quick look at the price action and break everything down and see what is doing what. As you can see, only energy confirmed an A down today. All the other sectors failed at the A ups and A downs. Directionless market.
11-18-11 08:11 PM Page 296 This is basically what we are dealing with today folks. These are the 9 SPY select sector ETF's. It's a good way to get a quick look at the price action and break everything down and see what is doing what. As you can see, only energy confirmed an A down today. All the other sectors failed at the A ups and A downs. Directionless market. on that note Mav,would you be so generous as to post a current reading on those 9 etf's
Last night I jotted down some weekend material that included the 9 sector ETF’s and I didn’t post it as it was late and I had consumed a few too many beverages : ) After seeing Ammo’s post I promise I’m not just butting in here : ) I’ll post it now and I do hope Mav comments on some of this or the sectors. From last night’s notes: This ACD newbe is enjoying looking at the overall market from an ACD perspective. I’ve told Mav in a PM how grateful I am for his postings and especially the A up/down examples he has so generously provided. Really, I would have had no idea where to begin to attempt to develop these levels without his posts. Mav provided ample examples of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly A levels to place that data in Excel, compare it past data, draw the lines on the charts for a visual, push my small mind and just do the necessary homework to develop my own formulas. I am very much indebted. Looking at this past week’s Russell 300 monthly and quarterly ups/downs and also the indexes and sector action was a real head shaker for me in the sense of “Man, some of these levels must be a fluke to be this close”. Mav has said many times that A levels form a bias and are not necessarily S&R levels. But damn, they do form a zone of S&R over and over. And, very often they are the not the so obvious S&R you would see on the chart. Issue: On Friday, the SPY formed a Fisher 5 day Rolling Outside Reversal Up. On face value we are hearing a lot about “All is good and we are rebounding nicely”. Look out above. Comment: On 1/27 SPY had a monthly A Down. I can provide many examples that depict when an A Down occurs near the end of the month there is short term continuation the next month. On 2/5 there was a Qtr A Down and then a 3 bar pivot up was completed on 2/6. Here’s what’s interesting for me: My SPY yearly A down is in the 173.60’s area and the low on 2/5 was 173.71! I wondered then if that was the low for now and it was. Currently, my monthly A Up is in the 180 area and Friday’s high of 179.87 is nudging that level. Newbe thinking: If we get a monthly A Up, then for me that would temper my Qtr A Down bias. (If we get the monthly A up, could we then bounce to the yearly A up level in the 192 area?) I’m real green at keeping numberlines, but I’ve settled for now on a very mechanical algo (Mav is shaking his head) and my last 5 days went -2, 2, 0, 2, 2 for a net 4, and that’s obviously the monthly too. (What’s your guys rolling 30 number?) Until proven otherwise, I have a negative bias. Regarding the 9 sectors: This is where I really shook my head at the multiple lows that were right around my yearly A down levels. A couple of examples includes a) XLB with my yearly A down in the 42.20’s area the actual low at 42.78 and b) XLF with my yearly A down in the 20.40’s area and the actual low at 20.50. Just like the SPY, most are confirmed Qtr A Downs and have bounced up to the monthly A Up levels. I just started keeping many of the numberlines on the sectors. XLU is the only sector flirting with my Qtr A up level around 39 and its monthly A Up is in the 40 area. Anyone interested in net monthly/quarterly levels and my WAG what they mean?