no doubt, they will serve you nice stop/loss bill in this case some brokers have guaranteed stop. I find it quite reasonable. was able to secure 20 contracts with 3 pips bill in USJY on the same number. having stop around 100 pips, I like this insurance. Bet this exotic pair would have much bigger insurance, say 20 pips and would have low size limit.
It's not a question of obvious, it was more an issue of asymmetry. Could the spread could go against you 5 or 10 cents? Sure. But these spreads are like long calls. Most of them won't go anywhere but the upside is .50 to a 1.00 so the payoff is very attractive. And with gas, all it takes is a weather event. There isn't a lot of risk in that spread to be long at those cheap prices. The problem is, most times you can't get it that cheap. But the sentiment on the street was, we had too much supply in gas from all the shale fracking and the forward curve was flat as hell. So the spread stayed cheap for a long time. As Fisher mentioned on CNBC, the curve is probably going to adjust now but the back end strips are probably deeply undervalued.
Yes, they WILL honor the stop. As I said before, that comes at a cost though. In situations of high volatility they are going to take you out EARLY! You need to understand that. That is why people on ET scream about running stops. They are NOT running stops. They are executing the way that they are BECAUSE they are guaranteeing your stop price. They could NOT give you that guarantee and not fill you early. Because like you said, they wouldn't be able to offset the trade. Does this make sense?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...n-vix-calls-in-day-s-biggest-options-bet.html Trader sells 250k VIX calls. I'm betting it was King.
So Maverick why do you think inflation is so high in emerging markets? this will hopefully be covered in your book. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/27/argentina-currency-idUSL2N0L10DJ20140127
As I said before, I think equities will be a non event. The short risk asset trade will definitely be in the currencies. In other news though, AAPL gapped down right to it's QTR A down around the 505 to 510 area. If this area holds, it might be a good long.
Hello Mav, Something that initially looks interesting is tracking the total monthly A Ups and Downs for all Worden's common stocks with a close greater than 5 and the average 21 day volume greater than 100,000. Today there were only 6 A Ups (CLFD, GIMO, KRA, LTC, LXP, SIMO) and 108 A downs for a net -102. Following a little of your numberline logic I've tracked them with a rolling 5 and 30 day and a 20 day that starts at the first of the month. I'll post some results if you or anyone is interested.