King, they crushed vol today. There is just no push in this market. At some point it will crack but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw new highs in a few weeks. Nobody is buying vol.
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?day=jan29.2014 fomc next week and yellin moves in on friday the 31st
Here's how I have understood it and seen some really good results. This is for futures only. I calculate the previous 10, 20 and 30 days average daily range (24 hour session). Then I take the min and max of those 3 values and discard the middle one. Then for the current day, add those 2 values to the current price to get the ADR high limit and subtract from the current price to get the ADR low limit for the day. As price makes new intraday highs/lows, the "ADR limits", as I call them, move closer to each other. When we have a confirmed A, the ADR limit almost always gets hit. See attached chart for today's CL action. Just happened to be a confirmed intraday A up in CL today. Hope this helps: