The ACD Method

I came up with a solution for that. I score the holiday. And score the day after and average the two into one data point. Magic!

 

Innovative and intriguing as usual. I have an opportunity to check how that plays next week.

 

Maverick,

opened a small Oanda accont after you talked them up a bit last month. Small trades, just messing around, 300k several times in the EUR/USD. Every order was filled instantly, on the nose. Almost like paradise. I was caught the wrong way trying to play an A Down right before the suprise NFP number last week. My stop was filled on my number. I find it hard to believe there were any trades at that price, considering the pair spiked like 60 points within 30 seconds. I am impressed. Do you know anyone trading real size on there? If they are that good with their fills it seems like an ideal trading environment. They claim to be able to do that kind of service up to a hundred cars. Too good to be true?

 

Well, here's the catch. You DO get your stop filled on the tick 99% of the time. The reason for this though is not quite as altruistic as you might believe. When the market spikes the spreads widen. Their algo is going to fill you early. In other words, let's say the Euro is currently at 136.50 by .51. You are short and you have a stop at 137.00 even. All of a sudden we get a big spike to 137.50. You look and notice your order was filled exactly at 137.00. So you are happy. However, what you are not seeing is that your order was probably filled when the Euro was trading 136.95 and they gave you a 137.00 fill. So you bought from someone at 136.95 and journaled the sale to you at 137.00 for a risk free 5 pips. But this happens so fast, like you said, that you don't really see what's going on behind the curtain. What this means is you can potentially get filled at prices pre-maturely and the market may not actually trade there. This is why you have guys on here screaming that they are running stops.

At the end of the day, you have to pick your poison. They can't do both. They will always give you the good fill on those spikes but then give you a bad fill on those orders where the movement is slower. Remember, this is all done internally. So your fill was probably offset by another trader but at different prices. This is how they make their money. Remember, they are providing liquidity for you so they this is the most efficient manner for them to do it.

 

thanks mav. All and all i think they are fair, they need to eat too. They seem to get protective at times, but not overly so in my limited experience with them.
I clerked for one o the biggest local dual broker/traders back in the 90's. He handled at least 80% of Solomon and Citi's bond future business and traded huge for himself as well. Being 200 up was nothing for him, lol. If the whiners on here could see how we mangled paper (markets/if toucheds/stops) they would probably would have had heart attacks. Oanda is Mother Theresa compared to the old days.

 

Thanks Mav. I think I am getting this. Take a look at the attached for CL. Late Dec, we pulled up to the Q4-13 A down level and rejected. This year, strong run through W1-14 A down, saw support start showing at Jan14 A down, then W2-14 A down bounced almost to the tick and then bounced from multiple As (Q1-14 and W3-14) to form what looks like a bottom and now we are right back at W3-14 A up and the Jan-14 A Down. Now, based on what I have learnt from you and others in this thread, it will be interesting to watch W4-14 (next week) A down level (failure) and intra-day A down failures.

Cyan lines are A ups and red ones are A downs.

Thanks again

 

Per Mark Fisher’s NYMEX 3rd video at the approximate 38:20 area is a discussion about the 5 day rolling outside reversal up pattern.

As you know, the conventional 2 bar outside day has H>H1 and today's low is less than yesterday. For the “Up” pattern they often add today’s close is greater than yesterday’s close. I created a scan with the close greater than $5; 21 days average volume greater than 100,000 and the current 5 day pattern being an outside reversal up pattern against the 5 previous days. (I also created a 5 day outside reversal down pattern.)

When you look back over the signals and compare them to the monthly A ups/downs there are some interesting results. You’ll note they often occur by completing an A up, or piercing and closing above the A level or start that strength/weakness building at the A levels. Remember Mav’s recent words: “BTW, let me add something here. About stocks basing, I have no problem with a stock forming a base, but I want that base to either be along a monthly A up or after it made a monthly A up. In other words, I want the base to be in a position of strength.”

Yesterday, ELY made an A Up in the 8.80 area; GSK made an A Up in the 53.50 area; MS made an A Up in the 32.10 area; MXWL made an A Up in the 8.20 area and STAG made an Mo A Up in the 21 area. (These are all monthly A ups.)

If anyone cares to see the results from yesterday’s scan:

BCF CNTY CRY CTCT DY EA EFX ELY ESNT ETN EVR EXL FLR GLNG GSK GSM GWRE H IBM JBL KFX MED MS MSCI MXWL NTAP NXPI OZRK PGH PHO QCOM SBCF SEIC SFL SLRC STAG STML TRW V VITC WYN XLNX YUME

 

CL is on the verge of confirming to the downside on the 30 day NL.

 

What are the W1, W2 and W3 levels? Are those different contract months?

 

This looks interesting. I'll taker a closer look at this sometime today.