For all you home gamers out there, oil does NOT look good. I don't like the way it's just sitting on the lows...waiting....waiting....waiting...
What about bean oil? Or rapeseed? Would appreciate if you'd share a monthly or quarterly level for bean oil if you have one ? One thing is certain, low oil price is not a driver for bean oil demand!
Hello, I trade CL exclusively. So far, I have focused only on the intraday levels and after I started reading this thread, a whole new world opened up for me as I mentioned in my previous post. I think I am getting a hang of the long term levels. I am going by the discussion in this thread and identifying logical ORs for Quarterly, Monthly and weekly periods. I had a couple of questions for ACD practicing traders. Do the prior period A levels matter when the period resets? Meaning, does it matter if price fails at the prior week's A down for instance? Also, I know everyone's levels are different. I am just trying to make sure I am not way off from everyone else so I will throw this question out there. Does anyone see a confluence of A down levels around 91.40-50 for CL? I haven't focused too much on quarterly levels, but from my limited research, I am seeing price fail at the current Quarterly and Weekly A down around 91.40. I am seeing the monthly A down at around 94. Maverick's post a few days ago suggested his Quarterly A down for CL was around 90.50 and I was worried that I am off a bit too much. I am aware from reading this thread that focusing on one instrument is really not the best use of ACD but I am really small time and do not have enough capital to trade ACD the way most of you traders trade over here. My plan is to have the long term levels for CL to help me trade the smaller time frame. I am hoping that by having a clear macro picture, I might do better with my intraday trades. Again, thanks very much for the open discussions. This has already helped me a lot.
RBOB is totally farked - and has been since last year Obviously a lot of the current price weakness has to do with seasonal trends, weather... But now we have more electric cars, NG powered cars...meaning less gas usage Is this price weakness a secular thing going forward? How low can it go?
No, using previous A levels violates one of my central tenets of ACD. That is trading levels that are not obvious. I have used the analogy in the past of how A levels are invisible to other traders but once price respects and fades off that level,that level becomes visible. Not as an A level mind you, but just as a level of support or resistance to the common crowd. This leads to unnecessary noise and volatility around that level.
We have massive inventory levels right now in oil. Has nothing to do with electric cars. Yeah these levels really matter. Energy prices across the entire complex is HIGHLY correlated to inventory levels.
Thanks. That makes sense. In your experience, are the prompt+1 or 2 contract month levels useful? Meaning, does it help to verify if an A down is failing, that it is failing in the front month as well as the most liquid couple of back months also? Question is specific to commodities since they have meaningful a forward curve. Much appreciated.