You know what Fisher's ACD levels are? You his personal assistant? Mav's right. You seem to think ACD is a systematic set of trading rules. It is a methodology that is a guideline not a hard and fast way to trade.
OK, a couple of things here. One, it's CNBC. He NEVER talkes about ACD on CNBC because no one knows what the hell that is. So he dumbs down ideas into 30 second sound bites for the avg CNBC viewer. Two, he is not trading "my levels". It's possible "he" does have a level here. It could be the 2nd half of the year level that KING pointed out earlier. In fact, I just looked up and say the first weekly bar of the year was 92.50 to 95.00. This EXACT area. So he "might" be buying the yearly opening range for crude, not a bad level btw. BTW, crude bounced right off my "weekly" A down. So that was a legit level for a short term trade and the yearly opening range is a legit level for a long term trade. Furthermore, the 30 day on crude is flat, meaning it's NOT confirming this overall weakness. As you can see, there are many ways you can look at this. The guy has been trading crude for 30 years, I would give him the benefit of the doubt. LOL.
We all have different A levels. My monthly A down is 93.95 and I just closed my short a while back because; 1) Bounced off my Monthly A Down, 2) EIA Inventory report showed a lower build than last week so no fundamental reason to hang on to a position I had for 2 weeks.
I'm just saying that his remark 'hey everybody is short crude so I look to go long' is stupid imho. Fits right in for cnbc I also still think that Fisher makes stupid trades. Maybe a 1000 times less that we all do combined, but still. This could be one of them.
He makes a lot of stupid trades. So does Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, Steve Cohen, etc. But you can't judge him simply by a sound bite on cnbc. He likes to talk about fading the crowd in terms of acting on an ACD signal that is contrary to sentiment. I do that all the time and have highlighted many of those trades on this thread. When everyone is leaning the wrong way and you get an ACD signal those are really fun trades. That is not the ONLY reason he is taking the trade, but it makes a better sound bite.
Mav, if it is convenient could you list the major currency crosses you think worth trading? A couple of years back you posted a list, which if memory serves, was basically the 6 majors but all crosses only against the 4 non-commodity currencies. That would leave out for example AUD/CAD.
EUR (EUR/JPY) just got the smackdown on unexpected ECB rate cut. Mav, would you say taking a short position on any EUR pair before the ECB meeting was an asymmetric bet in that had they done nothing, EUR would have moved little either way. But if ECB cut the rate unexpectedly (*), as we can see, there would be a massive move down? (* in fact prior to the meeting, other key figures were not so strong so it was not totally out of the blue)
There is the pop in the USD/JPY. You see the follow through strength in the dollar on the number line confirm and you see the weakness now more clearly in the pound. Regarding your question, I would not initiate a position right ahead of a central bank meeting but if I had a position I would hold it if I was in the money. And of course we saw the weakness in the Euro before this meeting. The number line collapsed and went neg after hitting that failed QTR A up. I'm just trying to tie all this together here because there is an ebb and flow with ACD as all these things come together beautifully in a perfect dance if you will.