I'm out of X, but I was in late. I think 19.25 is a good support area, but I took my profits this morning. Fundamentals drive my decision more than charts. I'm not a big believer in this tepid recovery in heavy industry, especially based upon what I'm seeing in our business the past 60 days. Business has dropped signifficantly from the first 6 months of the year, and our backlog in now less than 45 days. It was 90+ just 2 months ago. And it's not just us. It's across the board in the entire Chicago, NWI region. Just my 2 cents. Anyway, nice call Mav.
For the Oanda link, don't forget to check your time zone. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/market-hours http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_market_opening_times
Mav, CL is coiled up now big time.. you or anyone else got any thoughts on this one.... i'm getting more towards neutral with my spreads because this state of price action , and as well going into the weekend.. CAve
So the way we look at this through the lens of ACD is we review all the various time cycles and A levels and put a picture together. We are in a confirmed QTR A up but we are at the end of QTR so we can discount this data to some degree but make note of the fact that we have held above the QTR A up almost the entire QTR. Last month I mentioned we had an inside month with the A levels and this month we failed at the monthly A up around 111. Now that we are in the 2nd half of the month, the odds of a strong monthly breakout are slim which means we may get yet another inside month. On the weekly we made a weekly A down but the week is over. The number line reset for me 3 weeks ago. What does that mean? It means exactly what you already intuitively know, that oil is currently in it's consolidation phase. So what are we setting up for? An explosive move. However, that does not mean the move has to be to the upside. As of right now, we are sitting on the 50 yard line. There is no need to have a bias because ACD will give us the bias when it happens. No need to come up with fundamental reasons why this or that should happen. So you ask yourself, what DO you KNOW. We know that volatility is coiling as you mentioned and we have been hanging out above 100 for several months now. So what we can gleam from this is that volatility will expand and it's more then likely to come in October. So how to play it? Wait for the number line to confirm again, that's our price action indicator. Watch your new A levels next month for bias. The monthly A down this month is around 102. If we traded down there and HELD, I think that could be a great entry for the "possible" monthly A up in Oct. And of course you have your weekly levels next week which have provided great signals but keep in mind, vol has contracted a lot so these trades have tighter risk/rewards right now. This is how you do a complete ACD analysis. You should go through this process on every product you are watching and trading.
which session is the opening sessions for CL? thanks.. i've got those levels marked down on my chart...
the monthly and weekly lines, as guide lines for bias, and daily use for entries is the best thing for me probably.. i'm spreading in the futures.. i'm not day trading.
I don't trade crude, but looking at it there is a lot of confluence around the 95-96 area, Mav what does that number represent to you?