The ACD Method

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sbrowne126, Jul 16, 2009.

  1. Thanks


    So if my real concern is tryig to track a "trend" continuation in the SP 500, what woud I do?

    put together a 30 day line ? Also 5 day ?
     
    #6971     Mar 11, 2013
  2. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    The 30 day is optimal for both identifying an existing trend and identifying the start of a new trend. Since the word "trend" is very subjective to many traders, what's it's doing in reality is measuring the "health" of the market. So regardless of how one defines a trend, the 30 day number line is giving you the reading of sustainable strength or weakness.

    For trend continuation I have mentioned many times about the consolidation phase and the continuation of trend after that. The consolidation phase is captured through the 30 day number line re-set back to 0 or 1. Followed by a +9 confirmation again on the upside.
     
    #6972     Mar 11, 2013
  3. This is good stuff.

    Do you have a model that runs these calculations for your number lines for stocks, or are you going back manually and checking them for A up's? Also if you are looking for a monthly A level, are you using the first day of the month as the opening range? Regards to the monthly A ups, how long much it trade above the A value for you to consider it a valid A up, half a day if you are using a full first day as the opening range?
     
    #6973     Mar 11, 2013
  4. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Solid plus 3 day in AAPL today. Confirmed a weekly a Up and the 5 day is +6!
     
    #6974     Mar 11, 2013
  5. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    The number lines are qualitative. So manual analysis is needed. I use the first day of the month for monthly and full day above for confirmation. That is not the right way, it's simply the way I do it.
     
    #6975     Mar 11, 2013
  6. Thanks Mav. I've thought about trying to write a VBA to be able to calculate a number line for a small portfolio of stocks. The biggest problem I see will be the time function, as the A and C values will be pretty easy along with the opening range. Maybe this will be my spring project.

    As far as weekly levels, how can AAPL already have a weekly A UP on a monday? Are you just constantly rolling the past 5 days data?
     
    #6976     Mar 11, 2013
  7. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Weekly A ups are rare but on large moves, they happen. Weekly's start over every Monday. No rolling.
     
    #6977     Mar 11, 2013
  8. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    BTW, the upside target for AAPL will be 457, the monthly A up.
     
    #6978     Mar 11, 2013
  9. Thanks, if you don't want to give away your secret sauce I understand.

    What are you using for the opening range and time spent above the A values for weekly values?

    Fisher states 20mins for the opening range on a given day, then 1/2 that above the A values. This means that on a given day the opening range is roughly 5% of the day, so roughly 2.5% for the time spent above the A value.

    The normal number of trading hours in a week is 32.5 (1950minutes), the opening range would be 97 minutes (5% of 1950), so maybe round down to the first 90 mins, then use 45 mins above that value for confirmed A ups?
     
    #6979     Mar 11, 2013
  10. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Nice try! Hey, you know there are no wrong answers. Anywhere from 1 to 3 hours would make sense. Fisher starts his on Sunday night. You have to use something that makes sense to you. You don't know what kind of meds I'm on so you better not trust just what I say. :)
     
    #6980     Mar 11, 2013