Yea a shame about those posts Mav really good stuff in there. When you get a chance can you post a chart of gold, yen , and ES. Thanks
Monster day today. No other way to describe it. The biggest moves were in the currencies. I haven't seen moves this big since the 2008 credit crisis in FX land. EUR/JPY came off 700 pips intra-day! USD/JPY 400 pips! We had a plus 4 today in Bonds. EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP both had -4 days as well. USD/JPY traded all the way down to the monthly level almost to pip before bouncing 170 pips. In the various sectors we had -3's everywhere. And what did we have before this move. Number line deterioration's across the board. As well as long volatility signals in almost every product group. This move was absolutely telegraphed. Fun stuff!
Let's take Gold first. Gold bounced off the yearly A down at 1550. That's a nice bounce. We also technically did not confirm the QTR A down at 1580 and we are back above that. My 5 day went from -11 back to zero now. That just shows us the downward momentum has subsided. The 30 day is still -16. So there was a valid longer term trade off that yearly level. Now it's best to wait for the new levels next week. The weekly levels are 1575 and 1600.
FX was absolutely crazy today yet despite that, all the ACD levels worked. I'm attaching the Yen chart. When I show these charts to people they assume many times I draw these lines in after the fact. When in reality, we had these levels back on Feb 2nd. The 30 day on USD/JPY is back down to +7. The 5 day is -3. Still well above the QTR A up at 89.73.
ES also bounced off the monthly A down. Nice 10 handle bounce so far off that level. The 5 day is -3 and the 30 day is +11. BTW, the yearly A up for ES is 1537. The swing high was 1530. Perfect failed yearly A up.
I happened to have left this piece of the weekend thread open on a laptop. Sorry if it is tough to read but there may be something in here that someone is interested in. I tried to clean it up by deleting duplicated stuff since the quotes were all in the same font. I found some good stuff there. Thanks to all contributors. BEGIN: Mav you seem to be playing the higher TFs, but have you ever tried to ACD intraday? Yes, I have done all sorts of work with intra-day ACD. I just don't have time to post intra-day levels on here. But if someone wants to see specific levels on any product at the end of the day I can show them and go over the thought behind them. Maverick74, Saturday at 5:26 PM Report#6941LikeReply Maverick74 Active Member OK, so I just went back and did the 30 day number lines for EUR/GBP and for GBP/USD. The 30 day for EUR/GBP is 24. It hit +9 back on Jan 14th just as it was breaking above the monthly and QTR A up. GBP/USD is -16. It hit -9 on Feb 12th just as it was breaking down at the monthly A down. These number lines are telegraphing exactly what is happening in the market. These values are what's giving you the confidence to get involved in these trades. Maverick74, Saturday at 6:40 PM Report#6942LikeReply kinggyppo likes this. wavefinder Member Maverick74 said: ↑ Yes, I have done all sorts of work with intra-day ACD. I just don't have time to post intra-day levels on here. But if someone wants to see specific levels on any product at the end of the day I can show them and go over the thought behind them. If you have time could you post the intra-day levels on crude from friday and some thoughts? Thanks! wavefinder, Saturday at 7:53 PM Report#6943LikeReply wavefinder said: ↑ If you have time could you post the intra-day levels on crude from friday and some thoughts? Thanks! My A levels for Oil on Friday were 92.33 and 93.13. We had a confirmed weekly and monthly A down so I would NOT be looking to buy it. My monthly is -5 and my 5 day is -2. The 30 day is -7. So I would be looking for spots to sell. However, my volatility indicator is telling me oil has the potential for a large move right now. The best trade in my view would be to aggressively go after a break below 92.33 which we did not get. You could have taken the first fade off the failed A up for about 30 ticks. That trade was legit. The 2nd fade I would not have take. I never take any fades after the first one. So Friday there was not much going there and the ACD levels kept you from chopping yourself to death. Maverick74, Sunday at 10:40 AM Report#6944LikeReply wavefinder, justrading and wickedwin like this. wickedwin New Member New Such an elegant analysis via these simple ACD tools. wickedwin, Sunday at 10:57 AM Report#6944LikeReply Maverick74 Active Member New koolaid said: ↑ Hey Mav, what is your current thought on the yen crosses. OK, so let's do an update on the Yen crosses. As we get near the end of month here we need to lay off putting on longer term stuff. We have the weekly levels this week so that should be your focus on a swing basis. Let's go over the number lines. USD/JPY is +10 and has been consolidating. We really want this to re-set to zero to complete the consolidation phase. We peaked at +19 a few weeks ago. The 5 day is +1 so that also confirms we are in consolidation phase. GBP/JPY has just hit 0 on the 30 day so it has completed it's consolidation phase. GBP/JPY failed right at the monthly A up and came off 700 pips and went through the monthly A down but it was late month so we disregard that. Notice how you don't even have to look at a price chart when looking at number lines. If you only gave me the number line values and no price chart, I could tell you EXACTLY what the chart looks like and what it's doing. I could tell you if the product was trending, choppy, breaking out or consolidating. I wanted to point that because it is incredibly important to understand this concept. On the 5 day it's -2. Again, the weekly levels will be the focus this week. Also, btw, I'm not suggesting that a product after it completes consolidation has to continue the upside trend, it can move into a down trend phase from the consolidation phase. I'm simply saying the number lines have re-set and now both +9 and -9 are in play. EUR/JPY peaked at 21 and is now at 12 on the 30 day. The 5 day is -1. It's sitting at the monthly A down which means little in the last week of the month. It's still well above the QTR A up. AUD/JPY is +7 from a peak of 24. The 5 day is +3. This one is consolidating nicely. Again, this is very important and something I think 95% of traders ignore. You MUST under what cycle your product is in. I cannot type this enough. You cannot simply willy nilly get long and short at levels because you "think" something is going to happen. You need to watch the number lines as they take precedent over the A levels. And you must know if the product is in a trending phase or chop. And you must know if it's in a high volatility phase or low. This is probably more important in things like oil and gas where getting the cycle wrong will really damage your p&l even if you get the direction RIGHT! Please read over that sentence many times. Maverick74, Sunday at 10:57 AM Report#6944LikeReply Maverick74 said: ↑ Yeah but that post should be read 3 times for safe measure. LOL. Haha force-feeding us huh? Do you happen to know why the "change in trend" data was discontinued? wickedwin, Sunday at 12:27 PM Report#6947LikeReply wavefinder Member New Maverick74 said: ↑ My A levels for Oil on Friday. Thanks Maverick, great info!