I use ACD along with price action so to me, the time confirmation has a lot to do with price action. How is that product acting. How are the other correlated products acting. What time of the day is it. What does the macro chart look like. There are a lot of factors involved. It's not really black and white where you say, oh, it has spent 5 or 10 minutes above a level so I'll buy it. If you give me an actual trade you were looking at I'll walk you through the process.
Whew, that was an interesting day today. Got stopped out of some longs, but it was quite a run up to this point. Kinda interested to see what happens tomorrow. We've got the futures that came off, but while the ES seems to be having trouble with the weekly A up, bonds still managed to make the weekly A down. I've been short bonds about a week or so now, so that's good news for me. We fail the weekly A down in the S&P and I bet there may be a few trades to make. Some things I'm noticing, short-term momentum in some of the defensive sectors, (5 day line in XLU for me is a 5, XLV is a 4). XLB was a monster the last few weeks, but has come in big. I had some FCX off what I was considering a monthly A up, but that DID NOT end up working out. Also liked the way that EWZ looked... until today, (outside day down). Seems like housing is still working, and I'd really like to see a quarter A up in XHB/ITB/etc. My buddy LL is hanging higher, and take a look at NYT, that's looking good. Not that it's a housing play per say, but I'm thinking it fits that mold to some degree. We're coming into the tech season, and there's a ton of semis that are breaking out of longer term downtrends with some nice confirmed monthlies and quarterlies. CREE, FTR, PANL, SGI, the list goes on.
Yeah I've been short Bonds off the QTR failed A up with my biggest position of the year. A 6 handle move in Bonds is very impressive. Probably needs to absorb this move a little before the next leg down. Risk assets definitely feel like they want to test the highs. We just keep holding here at the highs. Then you've got AAPL and GOOG. Total monsters. Risk continues to look good here.
Agreed. I was an idiot and did not take AAPL at the qtr A down a few Fridays ago. Since then it's seemed like this market is not interested insignificant downside.
QTR A up in AAPL 638. Should provide some pause as that will be right at the all time high. I think the trade there is to catch the pullback to the failed weekly A down to get long on the push to new all time highs.
Nice, good call Mav, I keep AAPL on my screen at all times, so "hopefully" I won't be so dumb this time. : )
SAN keeps popping up on my scans making new highs the last few days. Maybe it's a massive short squeeze, maybe not, but it looks like a confirmed monthly so far. Think I'd prefer a quarterly given how beaten it's been, but more than for the trade, that's a great sign regarding Spain.
STPP has confirmed and moving higher. This is the curve steepener trade I recommended a few weeks back. Very safe way to play the risk trade.