The ACD Method

SHY-IEF would be the closest in duration. TLT would work better with IEF as in IEF-TLT.

The 2/10 and 10/30 are really popular trades with the 2/10 probably being a little more popular.

STPP is going to be MUCH more marginal friendly for retail guys. If you are going to hold this for 6 to 12 months the liquidity won't matter much. This is really a long term trade.

 

Oh nice haven't seen that IEF before.

Yea thats a good point, only concern would be if the trade didnt work then it becomes a shorter term trade lol. On the other hand it seems like there are some large block trades in there on some days so it may not be a big deal. If someone puts a trade on in there would be interesting to see how ladder and depth in the book is.

 

The thing to keep in mind with this trade is that this spread moves very very slow. So it's not like you are going to be long STPP and it's going to gap against you. It this explodes it might move 1% a month. LOL. So again, it's not really liquidity you have to worry about. For the retail guys out there, you don't want this trade to hog up all your buying power so this ETF makes sense vs spreading two more liquid ETF's.

 

BTW, we have 3 day narrow pivots tomorrow in Gold, Copper and the Euro.

 

Anybody see US Steel(X) today? That thing was like a bat outta hell Would wait for a monthly confirm here, but I have been seeing some outperformance here...question is will it stick.

Would watch very carefully. Also be aware if you are trading this thing, its a beast lol!

 

Yeah it's been on fire for two weeks now. Been watching it like a hawk. FCX as well. X is up 25% off the QTR A down.

 

Volatility is bit higher here than that STPP trade...to say the least

 

If you are watching X watch FXI. X is moving because of China and FXI has been on fire as well. China is the largest buyer of steel in the world.

 

Man that quarter adown test had the biggest 30 day numberline divergence ive ever seen. Check out the August 20's and 22's. Went from .2 to 3 bucks in the 20's after that inside action on the 26th

 

Bonds breaking down through the monthly A down. We have not had a monthly A down confirmation for Bonds since March! Price action is awful right now there. Stay tuned!