Crude oil had a textbook failed QTR A up. Once you get that failure, you need to be very careful about buying it. You want to be long into the tag.
This was my post back on July 7th. As you can see, this played out pretty much as I expected. We closed the gap at the monthly A down and bounced off the A down twice and failed at the monthly A up twice. I mentioned we might trade through the A down a little but but not confirm. This price action is setting up for some fireworks in August.
Question regarding +/- days. In the book Fisher says if opening range < pivot range< close then it's a plus day Is he just referring to the open when he says opening range or is he actually talking about the entire OR? In other words the product would have to stay above the pivot range for the entire OR?
He structured that poorly. Just read it in reverse, what he is saying is if today, the market closes both above it's opening range and above it's pivot range, then it's a plus day. So if Crude Oil's opening range is 88.00 to 88.40 and the pivot range is 88.35 to 88.50 and Crude closes at 88.60 then today would be a plus day.
There are different factors that drive oil and nat gas. They are not terribly correlated. Oil trades as a risk asset, natty does not.
Noticed you follow volume and open interest. U ever read the book "Volume and open interest" by Kenneth Shaleen? Good stuff!
I know the book but I don't really look at volume and open interest. I'm all about volatility. I have heard that's a good book though. I think volatility is more important the volume and it's one of the reasons why ACD resonates so well with me.
Something to point out, that at least to me is very important. I trade spreads, so I am always looking at correlation and changes in correlation in the market. I've noticed that the sectors i look at are starting to have some orderly rotation. Correlations that began to unwind a couple weeks ago are starting to stick a bit...so less mean reversion there. My numberlines have gotten alot weaker of the last several days, and clearly this is a market of have's and have nots. Will start throwing some swings out there when i see a good setup and see if this change sticks. Regardless definite changes in market action!