So far this is playing out like I anticipated. We pretty much tested the monthly A down today in the ES which also was the weekly A down. Tomorrow will be the test. Remember we can break it but I don't think we will confirm. We also get the fed minutes tomorrow. The number lines are holding up. They are not very strong, but they are mostly positive with many hovering around zero. I think we saw some really nice base building on the move up from 1260 to 1375. Hard to imagine we take all that away. But if we do confirm a monthly A down, my long thesis is gone. If we hold here, I think it's sure bet we test that 1383 level in the next 2 weeks.
Corn sitting right at the QTR A up at 741.20. Soybeans also at the QTR A up at 1576. Coffee going again. Bounced off the monthly A up and back up.
Monthly levels held again today in the indices. Volatility continues to get hit. Those are all bull items. Earnings have been awful so far and bonds have been on a tear. Those are the bear items. My thesis of a choppy range bound tape still holds. We are on the low end of the range though. I added some long exposure in the ES today via options.
Half expected an announcement from the FT at the close, (felt like one of those kinda days). NFLX hasn't tested it's weekly A down, (hanging near these highs of the week and showing some strength). Tomorrow is a small 3 day rolling pivot, and it's the third day in a row that the pivot has gotten smaller. Could be a trade there. FB looking pretty good too. Got a nice failed weekly A down signal there. Could be a long trade in the next day, (big pivot however tomorrow).
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/0...ampaign=Feed:+TheBigPicture+(The+Big+Picture) I pointed this out today to Shan. Not sure if there is anything to it.
I think the way they have taken vol out of this market is very telling. Whatever this market does, I expect for some dislocations to start holding. So correlations have continued unwinding and we have seen some things begin to show some tells. Semi's and industrials are definitely showing some signs of weakness. Homebuilders, retail, energy, and the transports have been showing signs of strength. Watching the price action and looking at RS/RW will be very important this coming cycle
Joe mentioned in his book that he tends to buy in the afternoon. Something that stuck with me. Of course there's the old adage, "the best trade made in the middle of the day is the one not made at all..." Today, makes sense. Impossible to read the Fed Minutes at 2pm, but probably digestible by 4. : )
So heres something strong for you guys that I noticed showed its hand a bit into the close today. XIV! I put this on my buy list today...so will be watching for entries into this. Only thing...how should I spread this? hmmmm