I would add that if the market is topping here with 1422 spx high, the price action makes sense, mkt tries to get to a new high, fails, probes lower, reverses, price discovery right Mav.
I have numberline confirmations in the QQQ, SPY, and the IWM will be there shortly. We held that 134.75 gap TO THE TICK on friday. I think as long as we hold that area in the next few trading days we are setup up to take out the 1375 highs in the next week or two. I would expect for us to retest the highs at 1420 within the next couple months. This market has been held down by alot in the past 3 months...it has become immune to the bad news. As soon as that gets lifted i dont think well just go sideways...we will go higher! Here we have the QQQ'S classic test of the breakout area. We held that on friday...watch the action here you can look at alot but the action doesnt lie!
The number lines dont lie. We have had a massive reversal in the numberlines for most of the market in the past 2 weeks. Everything that was shortable has reset. There aren't many shortable areas in this market. We have confirmed uptrends in many sectors and half the major indices!The question is whether you believe we will lift higher...I tend to think this market is strong. What does a strong market do...it lifts higher. Look at the jobs report on friday...you can say it was a light volume week etc. But! regardless the market has held key levels in the face of all the bad news. A couple days of digestion will work off this oversold reading and I think we will push to the highs!
Number lines are very strong but my call still stands. I think this month is a consolidation month. Neither A levels will be confirmed. However, if we do confirm a monthly A up, I'll be all over it. Same for the monthly A down. My end of year call still stands. I think we take out 1423 sometime in the fall and it will be a straight shot up to 1500.
Alcoa earnings tom...official start to earnings season! Next month or so should make for some good trading. Everyone ready for this??
Here is what is on tap this week: Monday July 9 China CPI (June): China CPI was 3.0%yoy in May. Consensus expects 2.3%, while we expect a print of 2.1%. Draghi Speech at the European Parliament in Brussels BOE Tucker Testimony to Commons Eurogroup/Ecofin Meeting Also Interesting: Japan Current Account Balance, Turkey IP, US Consumer Credit, Mexico INPC Headline Inflation Tuesday July 10 UK Industrial Production (May): We expect -1.7%yoy, slightly above consensus at -2.1%yoy for May, down from -1.0%yoy for April. Weidmann Speech in German Constitutional Court Also Interesting: France IP, Italy IP, Sweden IP, Norway CPI Wednesday July 11 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting: We and consensus expect no further easing steps from the MPC at this meeting. Germany CPI (June): Consensus expects 1.7%yoy in June, unchanged from the print in May. Brazil Monetary Policy Meeting: We (and consensus) expect the SELIC to be cut by 50bps from 8.50% to 8.00% United States Trade Balance (May): Consensus expects -$48.4bn in May, down from -$50.1%bn in April. We expect a print of -$50.5bn. United States FOMC Minutes Also Interesting: Czech CPI, Hungary CPI, Turkey Current Account Balance Thursday July 12 South Korea Central Bank Meeting: Consensus expects the base rate to remain unchanged at 3.25%. Indonesia Central Bank Meeting: The policy rate was at 5.75% in June. Consensus expects no change in the July Meeting. Chile Central Bank Meeting: We and consensus expect the base rate to remain unchanged at 5.00% Euro-area IP (May): Consensus expects 0.0%mom up from -1.1%mom in April. ECB Monthly Bulletin Also Interesting: India IP, Sweden CPI, French CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, Mexico IP, Peru Central Bank Meeting. Friday July 13 China Real GDP (2Q): We expect real GDP to grow at 7.9% yoy (consensus 7.7%yoy) down from 8.1%yoy in the first quarter. China IP (June): Consensus expects IP to be 9.8%yoy in June up from 9.6%yoy in May. We expect a flat reading. Russia Central Bank Meeting: We and consensus expect no change in the overnight auction based repo rate at 5.25%. US PPI (June): We expect a -0.4% print in June against consensus estimates of -0.6%mom, up from -1.0%mom in May. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment â Provisional (July): We expect a print of 74, very close to consensus at 73 and marginally up from 73.2 in June Also Interesting: Japan IP, India WPI, Spain CPI, Poland CPI, Hungary IP
Looks like we've got another 4 years of BO then... InvesTech found that if the stock markets rally to gains in the 2 months leading into elections, the incumbent party wins the presidency. And if the stock markets slump to losses in that critical September-October period for shaping psychology, the incumbent party loses. Out of the last 28 presidential elections, this simple indicator has proven correct 25 times. This is an astounding 89% success rate! Broken down further, in 15 out of 16 times the incumbent party was re-elected to the presidency when the stock markets rallied in those final two months before voting. And in 10 out of 12 times when the stock markets fell in September and October, the incumbent party lost. These are super-high correlations over more than a centuryâs worth of data, so this stock-market indicator has to be taken very seriously. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35495.html
Well, not that I'm trying to over analyze this, but I was thinking that the rally would come after the election and I assumed the rally would be predicated on a Romney win. I could see this market being very volatile in the fall and correcting again before the election. But these predictions are beyond ACD.
JPM doesn't report till friday, Alcoa yawn, banks could get hit with the Libor mess. The class action potential is a lawyers wet dream. http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/07/04/barclays-libor-email/?iid=EL :eek: