Here is a spread chart showing long SPY and short FXI. Yet another alternative to simply shorting ES.
Here is a followup to the soybean trade I mentioned on Sept. 13th as it broke through the monthly A down. Down 60 cents.
Not sure if you trade the distillates of crude oil or not but right now RBOB Gasoline is much weaker then crude. RBOB has confirmed a monthly A down while crude has actually bounced off of the monthly A down several times now. A down for me is 2.77 and currently trading 2.70.
Nice work Mav, thanks. Been staring at the CHF pairs for a bit now trying to figure if the ECB intervention is going to work. It seems to be holding. Wow, I was gone from ET for few days and look what I missed
Probably one of the better posts this year. What ACD has done for me is allow me to objectively manage my risk and allow me to follow many many more symbols. Fish says to not risk more than 2% of capital on any one trade, which I thought was silly when I first heard this from Acrary many years ago. But now I understand the casino aspect in this style of trading. What I mean by this is that you need to follow a large amount of markets. What I have found is that it is rare that your trade will hit a point B. What is more likely is that you will get a time stop, which means you will take a small loss or post a small gain. Now, for the time stop to actually work this way you need to have a system that essentially indicates that if price has not moved a certain distance in what Fish recommends as twice the time frame of the opening range, then you need to get out. This, like the rest of ACD, should be volatility based. What will happen is that this will let you keep your powder dry until that time of month when you catch the big move. Obama, The Bernank, Merkel, the ECB, somebody is going to say something to make the markets move. ACD allows you to be there and well armed ( with capital) when that does happen.
Thanks. No, I do not trade RBOB yet but it's on my list as I figure out how to calculate monthly A up or A down. I understand, you do not want to share your levels to protect your stop loss. However, if you can share framework for calculating monthly A up or A down, that will be helpful. For example Fish has following monthly data ( September) copper pivot high = 4.1655, pivot low= 4.1642 then July- first of the month ( this supposed to provide reference points for 2nd half of the year till December) Pivot high= 4.4118 and pivot low = 4.3715 Similarly for RBOB Sept. data. Pivot High= 2.8653, Pivot low= 2.8606 July- First of the month. Pivot High= 2.8930 and pivot low= 2.8345 Does these numbers have any value in calculating monthly A up or A down.
I don't use monthly pivots and I'm not sure how Fish is calculating his. Generally speaking the pivots should give you the same bias as monthly A levels. If anything, they will be tighter and get you in the trade earlier.