Gold above Resistance, gold hasnt made an aup since January...this is one to watch as it makes its to the monthly aup!
So we are in the middle of June and so far the price action in equities has been decent. Bonds have been stubborn and continue hold the monthly a down...that is a key level in a very stubborn market. There's a decent amount of monthly aups in the sectors I watch. Some notable names, DIA, XLF, XLE, SMH, FCX. I think this market has held in well this past couple weeks and I think the first few days are key next week and my bias is to the upside. Take a look at FCX people! No monthly aup since january and this thing is on the verge of breaking its strong downtrend! IMO this will be a leader when we rebound!
Pro bailout party looks like it's going to win this. Euro popping and dollar selling off here. I would be very cautious on any pop we get in the market tonight and tomorrow. I was telling Shan in the office on Friday that I have a somewhat contrarian view on how this could play out. I think the most bullish thing for risk assets is a hard selloff first forcing the liquidation of bad positions. Then a strong rally. If the opposite happens I think it will be very difficult sustaining a rally. That's just my opinion.
I'm not sure anything got resolved tonight. It puts the Fed in a bad position now as well because if we hold here then they have to tone it down this week as not to scare the market.
Just to add... Seems like bonds can't break that monthly A down. They're actually well off the lows that they made it to earlier in the session. I'm seeing a reversal type set-up on the daily that suggests that if we get any selling on the open in the indicies, we could see the OR or the monthly A up in bonds in days. We'll see, but to be sure, bonds don't look as bad as they did when the session began.
This is good news. If bonds are firming up, then they do not believe the problem is solved......because it's not. The Eurozone is just buying time.