The ACD Method

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sbrowne126, Jul 16, 2009.

  1. Quon

    Quon

    NG looking like a failed monthly here. I'm watching 2.509 as my monthly there. Again, new to the futures, but throwing this level out there...

    Lot's of chatter on CNBC and looks like a H&S for a short term top. I took profits on remaining position today, (FWIW).
     
    #5421     May 9, 2012
  2. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    I spread off my position and locked in a nice credit with further upside profit if we go higher.
     
    #5422     May 9, 2012
  3. Quon

    Quon

    Nice, I want to go out further on confirmation, but if I were playing UNG when do I have to worry about that contract roll?
     
    #5423     May 9, 2012
  4. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    It's already in the fair value of the ETF on a continuous basis.
     
    #5424     May 9, 2012
  5. Quon

    Quon

    Thank you
     
    #5425     May 9, 2012
  6. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Tomorrow we have very tight pivots in bonds, crude, nat gas and the indices. Can't remember the last day I saw so many products with tight pivots at the same time. Combine that with the CSCO earnings and it looks like we have our hands full! Or at least I will. :)

    BTW, I use pivots calculated on 24 hour trading. That does make a difference it seems.
     
    #5426     May 9, 2012
  7. sarue

    sarue

    Chaos, there's a tremendous amount of good information on this thread, but you're not going to get much of a response from the regulars, they pretty much stick to themselves.

    I think your suggestion has some merit. As you noted, the higher absolute value shows that the stock or futures contract is trending sufficiently to confirm an A, either up or down. It's probably worth adding to the number line and monitoring it for a while to see if it adds any value to your trading.
     
    #5427     May 9, 2012
  8. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Huh? WTH. LOL. I have spent almost 900 pages answering each and every question on this thread as have others. That's why this thread is 900 pages long!!!!!! Good lord people. Please. You would think you would be a little more appreciative of anyone that has taken the time to put 900 pages and 2 years of time into a thread. Some people absolutely amaze me. And not in a good way. LOL.
     
    #5428     May 9, 2012
  9. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    ChaosN, I'm sorry, I missed this post. I seem to have been missing a lot of posts lately. I swear I'm not seeing these as they show up in real time for some reason.

    Anyway, as to your idea. I think that data is very interesting, summing the number lines. However, I think I would come to the opposite conclusion at first glance. Let me explain. If you have a period where there are a lot of A ups and A downs, signaling a lot of volatility, I think mean reversion is likely to kick in and I would expect chop. However, if the total count was low, signaling a lot of chop, I would think breakouts are right around the corner. I'll start paying attention to this data and see what I notice.

    Intuitively I already know there is a mean reversion aspect to this. Days of consecutive A ups and A downs usually beget choppy action and vice versa. Hence the narrow pivot breakout strategy.
     
    #5429     May 9, 2012
  10. Quon

    Quon

    Looking back I don't even see when this was an original post by Chaos. The thread also has a tendency to move fast. Overlooking something isn't intentional.

    Mav's right; thread wouldn't be 900 pages if not for his and others' generous contributions.

    Many thanks to all who contribute, and here's hoping this thread never dies!
     
    #5430     May 9, 2012