This is something that's been discussed here a few times, and I feel strongly about it, so I'd like to respond. A while back on the thread someone posted a recording of one of Fisher's traders from MBF, (wanna say it was MF Breakout and the trader was Lou) and something I took from it was that if you look at 100 trader's number lines you're gonna get 100 different numbers. While you might say, well, this means that 100 ppl just judge the price action 100 ways, and so long as there's consistency it doesn't matter, I'd say it's something else. As a human being, you can look at a +2 day that confirms and closes above the OR significantly and be sure that it's a +2 day. However, what would a computer code assign to a day where the A up is confirmed and the instrument closes .01 above the OR? It'd probably assign a +2 right? Do you really want to have a computer assign a +2 to a day where the instrument closes .01 above the OR? I know I wouldn't. I'd like to use my discretion and call that a 0 day. Just something to think about. A computer will always follow the code you input, (unless you've developed AI in which case, why are you trading?).
So this is why I didn't short the futures. Beans up 29 cents overnight and blew through the QTR A up. Still no confirmation yet. I did put on a downside fly for basically free. I took a shot at a possible blow off top here and failed QTR. We still could fail here and come off. But if this baby goes limit up, I have no risk. This trade highlighted perfectly why you don't want to fade strong trends with futures.
I have a copy of Logical Trader with my signature, what's your bid for my copy? I'll even attach the Maverick74 moniker.