For the record, we had a perfect failed weekly A up in ES. Weekly A up was 1418.75. Actual high was 1417.75. The weekly A down is 1391.75. Monthly A down at 1382.50.
Gold confirmed my Monthly A down today. My level, (not that it matters mind you) is 158.98 (GLD). No one came in to buy the dip today, but it doesn't mean it won't happen. Use caution, gold is a religion for many.
Thanks Mav, I always appreciate it when you validate my signals. Makes me feel like I may have some clue as to what I'm doing!
Once again, the number lines foretold the future price action. As the indices continued to move higher, the number lines started breaking down across every sector. And sure enough on Friday after the jobs report, we broke the monthly A downs in the indices. The monthly A down in the ES is 1382.50. We still need to confirm that break on Monday but we have not even breached the monthly levels since November and not since September have we breached that level so early in the month. We also got some surprising strength in bonds. Bonds have now rallied over 5 handles off their swing lows. This is the first time since December that we took out the monthly A up and not since September have we taken it out this early in the month. The monthly A up is 139'29. We still need to confirm here as well. One item to note, the NQ has not taken out the monthly A down yet but it's close.
Concerning Gold, we made a monthly A down in Gold and for the 3rd QTR in a row, we have a QTR A down level in the same area around 1550, 1557.80 to be exact. I think there is a great shot we test that level. Silver has not made a monthly A down yet. That level is 31.18 and the QTR down for Silver is around 28.00.
Let's look at Nat Gas. People often ask what is the best way to try to pick a bottom in Nat Gas. Well, the best way probably is not to. The 2nd best way is when you have something that has been this weak for so long is to make your first entry a buy on strength, not weakness. In other words, wait for at least a confirmed weekly A up. Trying to buy at lower and lower lows is very dangerous. The only level I would try to buy even a small position on a bounce would be the failed QTR A down. I have noted many times on this thread that long term trends often end at the QTR levels. So this month, we have the monthly A down in nat gas at 193.80 and the QTR A down at 189.30. This means we are in mans land here. This thing could still fall a lot further.