King, A case could be made that bond yeilds can be grouped with the other risk assets. Periods of financial crises, recession, defalation seem to cause bond yeilds to tumle with commodities etc.. Governments / central banks re-inflates and yeilds rise with risk on. I have spent some time looking for a cycle of deflate/ re-inflate where this did nor occur going back at least a decade (glanced at crb cci back to 1970...still seems to hold) and couldnt find it. Thats what seems different about the last few months. The re-inflate cycle (Europe more than US) after Greece act2 meltdown in AUG/SEP was followed by risk on but this inflationary action didnt cause yeilds to rise. Two CPI's .3 and .4% , better data, Greenspan encouraging words last week and I read recently that the bond market anticipates that he will be forced to break the pledge and raise rates in a year or so. Rising yeilds are inflationary and historically inflation is bullish for commodities , thats all I can tell, but ..the dollar is stonger(non - inflationary) and it appears that the 2002-2008 dollar downtrend is bottoming over the last few years. For me, this is the 1st time I am realy looking at the hard right edge of these asset classes and looking to sell ZN for a swing/position trade. The past looks very clear to me. Ha !
Hey does anyone have anymore Mark Fisher seminar videos, I have the 6 part one from 2003 and the 2 part one from 2005. They help me wake up when there's not much going on....just something about his energy I guess. Thanks
I see this thread gets pretty quiet when I'm not posting. LOL. I'm currently working on some proprietary stuff and about to begin trading with a new prop firm. I'll try to keep some commentary going here so this thread stays active. Not sure where everyone hides when I'm not here. But time to lure you back out...
article on crack spreads: http://seekingalpha.com/article/260232-the-crack-spread-theoretical-oil-margins-near-2-year-highs
You're right, it does get quiet when you're not around! I've missed my daily e-mail updates regarding this thread. Some stuff that I'm looking at: SPY has confirmed my yearly A up, GLD failed the yearly A up late Feb and "should" be destined for a date with the A down, (think this might upset the gold bugs out there). Oil has been... difficult. After it failed the Qtr A down and ran to the Qtr A up, it seems to be headed lower, (I don't have it confirming the Qtr A up). It seems like the indicies are now more in line with the rise the dollar, and falling commodities. Some things of note in March: SPY confirmed my monthly A up, and oil was sitting on the monthly A down a day ago, (relative strength). XLY is seemingly unstoppable, (granted housing numbers were lousy last week). Does this mean the health of the consumer for 2012? HD has been particularly strong in that space.
Here is an update on the Yen horse race. AUD/JPY is really lagging here. All the other horses are crowding together. USD/JPY is the only one currently above the monthly A up.
Here is an update on the CHF/JPY vs USD/JPY. These two keep going back and forth but CHF/JPY still has a slight out performance.
As far as the overall market goes, we have very strong 30 day number lines and the 5 day rolling number lines are also pretty strong. It looks like we might get a squeeze into end of quarter window dressing. All the number lines are good and the indices are all above the monthly A ups still.