The ACD Method

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sbrowne126, Jul 16, 2009.

  1. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Number lines...
     
    #4681     Feb 21, 2012
  2. Shanb

    Shanb

    Consumer names finally showing some weakness here...lets see how those numberlines shape up after the close
     
    #4682     Feb 21, 2012
  3. A bunch of chatty Catheys today...
     
    #4683     Feb 21, 2012
  4. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Number lines continue to look awful. Terrible price action today.
     
    #4684     Feb 21, 2012
  5. Shanb

    Shanb

    A note on something Quon mentioned to me. One thing I see over and over is after an A confirmation price will most always test the a level and either consolidate or fail at the test and continue on the breakout.

    Anybody notice this as well and have any setups on the higher time frame confirmations?
     
    #4685     Feb 21, 2012
  6. Lucias

    Lucias

    Thanks for link. I think your explanation is poor though.

    There are typically 2 ways to trade spreads: relative strength (you expect one to outperform) or mean reversion (expect spread to collapse). If you play relative strength you buy A hoping it continues to outperform B. If you play mean reversion then you sell the stronger and buy weaker.

    The basic idea behind spreads for mean reversion is the law of one price. Basically, similar products are interchangeable. In terms of relative strength, there are many ideas behind that too. One might might look for fundamental reasons, for example, might think company A is stronger then B and will outperform. There are many books on spreads at Amazon.

    What Maverick has spoke about in spreads (in relation to me and others), is how proprietary firms will trade spreads. Often for example spreading a cash market with futures. This could be for arbitrage or something longer term. You might for example create a basket of stocks that you think will outperform the indices but you're making a relative bet, so you buy stocks and sell the futures.. Or you could spread a future against a future.. creates a calendar spread.

    Typically for pairs for mean reversion.. you want them to have some correlation, a high correlation to be exact. You want a high correlation because it implies the stocks move together. A high correlation isn't enough though, they need to get "out of line" at times to make a profit. FOR relative strength spreads, you want an inverse correlation.


     
    #4686     Feb 21, 2012
  7. Hi, thanks Mav and all the great contributors. I'm learning the numberline and having a hard time deciding if today's ES numberline value gets a 0 or -1. Based on my levels I have price failing to make an A down, then failing to make the A up, then making an A down late in the day, and then closing within the opening range. Thanks.
     
    #4687     Feb 22, 2012
  8. Quon

    Quon

    Hi Snaggleteefs,

    One of the lectures posted in the past here mentions that 100 traders will have 100 different number lines, that said, without looking at anything but what you've posted, (and based on Fisher's work) any trend day that confirms an A, (be it up or down) but finishes in the opening range, (again, according to Fish) would be a 0 day.

    Hope this is helpful.
     
    #4688     Feb 22, 2012
  9. Quon

    Quon

    Guys,

    Tell me you've been watching CCJ! Look at that price action, (especially given the number lines of late). Great trade on last Tuesday til today, a failed monthly A down all the way up to and above the monthly A up today.

    5 day rolling:
    +4

    up almost 5% today.
     
    #4689     Feb 22, 2012
  10. Quon

    Quon

    It's early, but looks like the failed weekly A down in the TLT from yesterday still looks good...
     
    #4690     Feb 22, 2012