it looks like you are mixing time frames. If you're opening range is 45 minutes then you want to take the average true range for that time frame. You are trying to discern what the range is over time for the 45 minute blocks of time to create a ups or downs. Looks like oil broke up right out of the gate. It looks like it made an a up on the shorter time frames.
Per my RULES, failed A down. Tha's why i went long at 98.32. We need to be aware of support levels. My definition of clean A down or A up - since MF method is primarily a breakout method- I do not want price to touch or come into OR. Even if we had an A down confirmed at 98.38, I will not be initiating a new position for shorts there. Too close to support. After confirmed A down, even if price moves into OR, i will be looking for shorts at resistance and one of key resistance is OR high of 99.33 , as an example. On a side note, traders who trade breakout set up use OR of like 5 or 10 minutes. Narrow OR for breakouts , wide OR (like i use 45 minutes OR) for fades . So, traders using 5 minutes OR, have an A down and they got nice ticks 10 minutes after 9 am open on shorts.
what was your timeframe on the failed a down. Dom993 mentioned like 4 frames. I think he was using the daily a down as a reference and possibly trying to enter on a lower frame like ten minutes, that is fine as long as you know the uncle point otherwise a recipe for disaster. Mav has said before and I agree that you have to be careful otherwise it is easy to let bias enter in. For example you can justify staying in a breakout trade that is clearing going against you because the longer time frame shows breakout. I think that the rule about an A up being half the time frame is about trying to keep traders from being "deer in the headlights" with a losing trade. I wonder how many times that happened, LOL!
The Dow, S&P, and Russell 2k all sitting at their monthly A ups. NQ confirmed. I still think this is a critical area. Even though we are late in the month and any confirmation here is weak because of the late signal. I do think there is a potential for some selling on the AAPL numbers after the bell tonight. Bonds are also holding right at their monthly A down looking for a pop. We'll see. This tape is so stretched right now.