Don't know if you've seen this before, but think its a good watch for anyone who hasn't: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QpBQhwl3dE It's about a trader that traded futures out of Australia.
As I mentioned this is my next project. Its with Tradestation though. I can share this with you if it comes to fruition.
Absolutely, no doubt, (with regard to the time factor) but what I'm saying, is that sometimes you get the time confirmation and then stocks retrace. Again, think of it this way; do you really want the program to assign a +2 to a stock that confirms an A up and then closes 1 tick above the OR by the end of the day? Here's a pretty easy way to keep track of the market without needing to track the "ten-thousand-things" as Lao Tse would say. Track the sector ETFs that are most significant to you. Some use 9, others use 16, you can use as many or few as you like. This way you're only tracking the number line of 9-16 instruments at the end of each day, (takes just a few minutes at the close). Then scout the top sector for the strongest individual stocks. I posted earlier today that the XLB is rocking with a +13. So I go shopping in the XLB. I like FCX, DD, DOW, PX right now. I do the work to see who's the strongest there, and that's who I look to buy. Maybe a few look really good, maybe only one stands out, (like BMY Oct - Dec). Just be sure you know what affects each. We stayed clear of FCX today because it reports in the AM. DOW, DD, and PX are no doubt currently buoyed by the drop in Nat Gas, (watch Nat Gas if you trade chemicals). So on and so forth.
Yes and no. Here is what I mean. Tradestation works in a user specified interval. You need to make sure that whatever your OR time is, that you are using a interval that is at least 1/2 that in your calculations . This allows more flexibility in telling the computer what is a failure vs a confirm. Here is an example.. 8 minute OR.. therefore 4 min chart interval. (this allows creativity programming what consitutes a success vs failure) confirmed A up = 2 consecutive 4 min bar closes above that A level. Failure A up = either 1 or 2 consecutive bars whose high > A level, but both bars have closing < A level. or a failure could be that the high of bar 1 is > Ap up, but close of bar 2 is less. You could also program in a vicinity bar to where if the bar closed within a tiny fraction of a percent of the A UP, it constitutes a success.. THe bottom line is yes, there is subjectivity, but there is going to be subjectivity manually eyeballing it also. The same way there is no "magical A levels", there is nothing magical about spending 1/2 the time of the OR above the A up.. THe hard part to me is that there are so many different scenarios, you need to make sure they dont overlaps each other with crieria.. Hypothetically if you arent careful, you could be having a single days behavior flagging 2 different scenarios.. Especially since Fisher uses periods of the trading day as requirments for when the behavior occurs.. But it is doable, you just have to be careful. Honestly the only reason I am considering doing it is b/c I want a tool that can help me focus my attention on a handful of stocks.. This to me is one of the biggest challenges of stocks..
Good idea.. You might have just saved me alot of time and money.. This makes a ton of sense... You basically provided a common sense solution to my last post lol..
Maverick74, For week of Dec. 19th-23rd, your weekly level for CL was 96.47 along with monthly A down level of 95.38. On December 14 th, CL closed at 95 and you posted monthly A down in CL is confirmed. Next 3 days price stayed below 95 and 4th day made up move and continued it's up move in coming days. What's the time filter for monthly A down/ A up and weekly A down/ A up? In terms of getting Bullish again after monthly A down, what's the hurdle an instrument need to clear? Close above weekly A up level? I know you start every month from zero in terms of 30 days number line vs Fish cumulative number. Were your number lines negative over past week or so pointing towards high probability of monthly A down? During this time period and past 2 weeks Fish cumulative number lines were positive as following 12/9, 12/12,12/13,12/14,12/15,12/16,12/19,12/20 19,16,15,11,11,8,6,6 Basically, I am trying to find if there is any relationship between weekly, monthly levels and 30 days number line. If 30 days number line can handicap weekly , monthly A up/ A down? From Fish cumulative number line listed above, it certainly did not handicapped monthly A down very well. What are monthly and weekly levels for CL for January? Fish 30 days cumulative 30 days number line for Jan. are 01/03, 01/04, 01/05, 01/06, 01/09, 01/10, 01/11, 01/12, 01/13, 01/17, 01/18 3,5,5, -5,-7,-11, -9, -15, -13, -13, -15