01-05-2012. I try to stay away during oil report. It's interesting to note we had a failed A down in ES again with DXY above 81 level.
From a sector watch standpoint the XLP is strongest at 0, (haha) but the XLV still holding in there at -2. Look at MRK, nice. XLB also working at -1. Nothing great here, but at least you get a sense for the relative strength of the sectors. I like the turn around in the XLB which has recovered significantly over the past month or so. It should be noted that this is the 30 day number line.
Actually I didn't go out where I marked time stop in the chart but once the 5min bar closed below the A up (second blue circle, LX 138.12). Idea was that the market didn't move after I initiated the position (Fisher's bus people analogy), so I exited it.
But that is what the confirmation is for. If you don't confirm the A up, that is your time stop. I don't think you did anything wrong. And again, as I've said before, you have to watch other products to get a feel for what is going on. What was the Euro doing? What was the Dax doing? And so on.