And what was the low today...it was 129'02. Intra-day A up is 129'27. We should tag that at some point today. Getting close to that monthly guys.
Very admirable Mav, you make a great case. One fundamental thing I cannot wrap my mind around though is the idea that there are no "objective" levels. Everything I've read still makes it seem as if there are values in these variables that either work or don't. Fisher's stated himself that the numbers in the book would lead to losses, indicating there are right and wrong values that adjust to market conditions. If that is the case, then wider exposure of this method will dilute its results, which is pretty much one of the few fundamental truths of market behavior. If it's not the case, then there really are no precise levels, including what you've been posting (which clearly work in your context). Regardless, everything about this method makes sense on an intuitive level. I find a lot of value in using ACD to read price behavior within the context of what I currently have, which is systematic. It seems to help "describe" what's happening in my completely uncorrelated system that actually does not use the instrument's price as a variable at all. Because it seems to make sense, I still feel a little uneasy with people's willingness to discuss ACD. I wonder if anyone else might feel the same way. Is there a discrete "edge" here, and if so, can it be diluted?
And we're there. As I pointed out in this post, the entry into this trade if you were late was looking for any failed A downs you might get. Today was failed at the intra-day A down to the tick at 129'02. If we actually confirm today above the monthly, this trade is going to keep going. I would not suggest chasing bonds but rather looking for more failed entry's to get long. The weekly is pretty much out of the question, but there will be failed intra-day A downs as well as a possible failed weekly next week or in following weeks. That concludes the bond analysis trade. I just wanted to walk through a trade as many people on here were not quite sure how to use ACD on the macro level. I rarely discuss trades on ET and I probably won't discuses any more. I just wanted to keep the thread alive and give an example of how ACD can effectively be used to trade any market. And bonds were a great example because many on here thought ACD might not works on bonds because they are not that volatile. Obviously I showed just how effective it can be.
There really are no magic levels. As I've said before, ACD is a price action based system. Our levels could be off by 5 or 10 ticks but I'm pretty certain we would be in agreement about the relative strength or weakness of any given product. I don't think there is any way to dilute the effectiveness of this methodology. Because not everyone will use the same volatility levels or the same opening ranges or trade in the same style. I tried many times to "teach" ACD to guys in my prop office and it was an utter failure. Which proves that there is no "magic" involved. Trading is hard and it won't turn a bad trader into a superstar. It will simply make a good trader better. But you have to get guys to the good trader level. I think peace in the middle east might be an easier mission.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/chart...afraidtotrade/NRSd+(Afraid+to+Trade.com+Blog) Here is another look at the bond trade by another person. No ACD involved but same idea.
nice trading, remember we had qe ending and the default issue, the question was would money flow back into treasuries, bidding it.