Alright, check this prediction off. There's the pop. Bonds as expected coming off a few ticks along with Gold. The first test tomorrow for Bonds will be the intra-day A down and the weekly A down. Stay tuned...
Yep...I was sitting on Lake Michigan, trying to relax, at around noon today, reading the twitter headlines, and i just had this sick feeling of death in my gut that spooz would be up big come 5pm and i should already be long now....
Well, lake Michigan sounds nice! I think whatever rally we get this week will be faded once we get the jobs report on Friday. I'm expecting the next leg up on bonds to come on the back of that shitty report.
Weekly levels for Bonds are 128'28 and 127'07. If we take out the weekly and confirm...watch out. We'll make a beeline to the 130 handle.
Weekly confirm on bonds and notes. The action is going to stay hot all the way into Friday's jobs report. The monthly A up will be an ideal target on this move. Traded a full handle up from the intra-day A up on the 30 year. Very Impressive.
The strength in bonds continued today with a confirmed intra-day A up and a confirmed weekly A up. We closed just under the weekly. Upside target will be the monthly A up at 130'11. I would look to buy more on the dips at the failed intra-day A downs or the failed weekly A down at 127'07 if we get there. Notes were a little weaker failing at the weekly A up at 126'11. Bonds will probably chop for a few days digesting this rally a little waiting for the Friday jobs report. The bond market is totally focused on the econ data, not on the debt ceiling. The spoos failed this morning at the weekly A down and we popped off of it. The TF almost to the tick. Gold failed at the weekly A up. Equity vol got crushed today after being bid through the roof last week. The VIX and the TED spread show no default risk in the market. Equities will probably get a pop on any kind of resolution tomorrow. The weekly A up in the spoos would be an ideal target at 1314. Jobs report on Friday is going to be disastrous. However stocks most likely have priced that in. Bonds will probably a catch a bid on some more short covering.
Mav, 1. I cant believe your bonds are rallying so much! 2. The 2/10 spread keeps flattening...down to 248bp now! that is the big hedge fund trade now IMO 3. ES/Gold/CL (risk on trade)...wow what a reversal day! 4. USD/JPY...Intervention???? As for my option position, closed out the SPX 1250 and 1280 puts this afternoon, and bought 2 1300 calls...I was ready to close them at 9am if we opened and after 30 mins where trading above the Opening price on the SPY....(didnt happen) we pretty much just sold off on that level...I should have added (thats a low risk trade to sell more), but didnât just kept holding with a mental stop of some time trade above that opening price (monthly/weekly/day) opening price....stayed short through the shitty 9 o clock number, which traded aggressively down through the PP (TIGHT pivot/volatile day)....closed out the puts after that and the slow trade below prior trade lows...flipped and went long around 2:30 during the Boner press conf....only long 2, so its basically a no risk trade...will add if we can trade above Mondays OR for SPY/SPX/DJI/NAS... Also...watching the BAC 9Calls...want to get long 100 cars if I cant get a nice ACD setup on them. I dont like the fact that tomorrow PP for the SPY/SPX/ES is ABOVE todayâs closing price....we immediately open the day with the PP residence, but if we can get a gap up above that i'll leverage up even more on the long side...