Mav, your going to have a nice lead on that bond trade...i couldnt believe my eyes when i woke up and the 10 year was back down to 287! And the 2/10 curve is down to 248bp!
I'm telling, this is where ACD really shines. You notice things in the price action early that other people don't see. The monthly A up was at 124'13!!!!!! And when it confirmed the whole world was talking about shorting them.
Added to my SPX puts a few hours ago - BOT 1 AUG 1280P @ 20.50 when $spx traded back up to 1300 and failed (that was just below the SPY PP Range)...so currently long 5 1250P and 1 1280P. I added with the 1280 in case we retrace for the rest of the day and trade back down to the 200day MA (daily). I probably should have took some profits this morning, was up about 7k+, now i got about a 4k lead on this position. just staying long vega, hope this vix keeps moving up.
Be careful with the index trade. We failed at the A downs across the board in all the indices. I think we could pop really big on Monday. First day of the month has been a killer for shorts this year.
Hey Maverick, I've been watching the 30-year as a result of your head's up this morning, wow, what a trade. Looks like the signals call for some last minute deal that catches everyone off sides. Just heard a talking head on TV proclaim with great certainty that the trade was in shorting the treasuries. Ouch!
So seriously, am I the only one watching this action in the 30 year? I rarely discuss trades on ET. This trade was juicy due to the debt ceiling news next week and the ACD price action which was going completely opposite of the crowd. I wanted to demonstrate how you use the levels to determine proper price action. You guys do know that you can trade the TLT ETF and get the same action right? I'll publish the levels next week for everyone to follow along. But let me emphasize again what made this trade so good. Everyone is watching the spoos but the overall equity market has been choppy. I don't think anyone is leaning the wrong way in stocks right now. The spoos have been range bound now for 4 months so I don't think that is the trade. Gold is overbought and certainly could sell off hard on the news but I think there are too many bids below the market to make that exciting. Bonds though, this trade is good because I believe the entire world is short. Bonds have been range bound the last few months but they are actually breaking out of their range now. If they continue to go higher you are going to see massive short covering. So the play is to watch your ACD levels to determine the price action. Next week you'll want to buy the failed A downs intra-day and the failed weekly A down. Lighten up at the failed A ups. Keep watching your levels to spot the real energy behind the move. Next week we'll have real price targets on the upside to use as our guide. And if Bonds roll over, you'll be able to spot the difference between a normal pullback and an actual confirming sell signal to get out!
Don't worry, Mav, there are more people following this than you think. I personally have a nice sim trade going with a Long 30 yr/Short 10 yr spread. I've also been watching the 10-yr intraday for the last several months. I think it is an underrated market, ACD-wise. The intraday A-ups/downs either fail right away or run like the wind. It doesn't have giant daily ranges like crude, but its liquid for as much as you want to buy, and you can get away with tighter stops. I appreciate your commentary, and will definitely be paying attention next week.