The ACD Method

Maverick74 · Jul 29, 2011

Quote from jsmooth:

I ended up watching MCO at the open, but that thing just didnt move (wasnt volitile enough for me), and i think it could be a 2-3 days before see a major move....ill just wait to be a seller once it breaks 35 (seems like Res on the chart).

Instead ended up looking at options on the $SPX...ended up buying 5 Aug 1250 Puts during slow lunch trade when we where sitting right below the pivot (on SPY - around 131.45 - if i remember) - bought 5 on a 9.50 bid. SPY/SPX/ES was above the opening prints but seemed like an A up fail, so my stop (and still currently is) a SPX cash close above the July Opening, or a day thats very well bid on the Aug first trade...

At around 2:15CT, I was long 5, I tried bidding on 3 more cars once the SPY broke below the day OR (130.60 - C DOWN) - was placing the order on the BID, never got filled tho...so ended the day still holding 5.

First support/place i'm looking to cover 1285 (200day MA on SPX daily)... not sure what my greek exposure is...but i'd be selling the Vega at vix 28-30.

The drop after the 'no vote' is around this level, so i may be considering closing tomorrow morning if the market goes bid (opens down, is bid, and never really makes an A down), and the VIX is not moving up (from the open)...on days like this, the first place i look for is the 50% fib of the gap...

But I'm staying short on this one right now and hopefully i can find a place to add and really push it tomorrow morning

The trade RIGHT NOW....is playing the 4320 level on the 6e (from the long and short side
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My weekly level on the Euro is 142.20 and we bounced off of it almost to the pip this morning.

jsmooth · Jul 29, 2011

i think we can just sell some 6e here (4266 )with a 20 tick give or take stop 1:15AMCT

Samsara · Jul 29, 2011

Quote from jsmooth:

Dont worry about specific levels/times....you need to just understand about the whole concept of ACD....any level can be an A level (but it must be a point in time that someone, buyer or seller, is pushing the market (and getting fills aggresively - they dont care that they are paying up to buy, buying the offer and placing new bids...) , and you combine that info with the "avg volitility"/ATR to see if they are keep coming back to buy or are done buying and the market makes a failed A level...your not trying to identify A ups and downs....your trying to understand what is going on with the T&S - someone comes in and buys (Aup), or he just buys, then stops (failed Aup), or hes buying the first few hours (Aup), then stops and sellers come in (C down - now all those buyers are stuck short)....
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This is a very helpful way of thinking about the method.

Many thanks.

Maverick74 · Jul 29, 2011

Quote from Maverick74:

My weekly level on the Euro is 142.20 and we bounced off of it almost to the pip this morning.
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We bounced off the weekly yet again on the Euro, almost to the pip.

Maverick74 · Jul 29, 2011

Quote from Maverick74:

Watch the 30 year bonds. We confirmed a monthly A up and we failed at the weekly about 4 times but then broke above today. Tomorrow is the last day of the month which means we get new levels next week. I get the feeling the world is massively short bonds and the price action is very strong. These bonds could really explode to the upside regardless of the debt ceiling news. This is the trade to watch in my opinion. I think everyone is leaning the wrong way. I would look at the weekly levels next week after we get the news to take action.

Spoos are sitting on their monthly levels. We already bounced off of them twice to the tick. But with tomorrow being the end of the month, I would wait for next month's levels to take action.
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Man this price action in bonds is really good. I truly believe this is "the trade". I'm telling you guys. Everyone is short, massively short. This debt news is going to catch everyone on the wrong side. Confirmations across the board. If bonds go out on the highs today going into the weekend and we pop on Monday, the shorts are going to experience some serious pain.

Quon · Jul 29, 2011

Watching the auto space today as usual. Weekly a downs were made in most names on Tuesday and we're confirmed for the month as well. Hopefully you're already short, (or long puts) looks like we'll take out the monthly ATR today. I was looking to cover F at 12.22 today, but the pre-market has it trading well below there... Could make a significant move lower if/when we break the 200 day SMA on the 'ole S&P.

Hope all you ACDers are on the right side of things today.

Maverick74 · Jul 29, 2011

Quote from Maverick74:

Man this price action in bonds is really good. I truly believe this is "the trade". I'm telling you guys. Everyone is short, massively short. This debt news is going to catch everyone on the wrong side. Confirmations across the board. If bonds go out on the highs today going into the weekend and we pop on Monday, the shorts are going to experience some serious pain.
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My intra-day level on bonds today is 127'05. And that is currently the high. That level should hold.

Maverick74 · Jul 29, 2011

Quote from Maverick74:

My intra-day level on bonds today is 127'05. And that is currently the high. That level should hold.
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Wow, confirming intra-day A up.

Maverick74 · Jul 29, 2011

The fact that I'm the only one on ET talking about this trade only makes it better. Amazing.

drm7 · Jul 29, 2011

SPY with a strong rally, too. Lately SPY/ES and ZN/ZB, etc have been moving in opposite directions...looks like either a QE3 trade or a rally on rumors of a debt deal. (Not that it has anything to do with ACD...just an observation.)

The pivot at 130.67-ish would be a good target for this leg up on SPY.