The ACD Method

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sbrowne126, Jul 16, 2009.

  1. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    It's been trending the entire year! This last dip it had was the first one of any consequence for the year.
     
    #2441     Dec 8, 2011
  2. Shanb

    Shanb

    #2442     Dec 8, 2011
  3. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Shan, are their back tests for mean reversion or diversion?
     
    #2443     Dec 8, 2011
  4. Shanb

    Shanb

    A pair can be trending and still have a co integrating relationship tho!
     
    #2444     Dec 8, 2011
  5. Shanb

    Shanb

    These are for mean reversion
     
    #2445     Dec 8, 2011
  6. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    OK. I have NO interest in mean reversion. LOL. I don't want to trade in and out of this stuff looking for pennies. HFT's do that pretty well at zero cost. I rather ride that trend. :)
     
    #2446     Dec 8, 2011
  7. Shanb

    Shanb

    Ok :)

    These are all multi-day spreads, just thought it was a cool tool. Maybe one can even look for spreads that totally suck with the mean reversion approach and flip it! I haven't found any other easy accessible tools for this and a little creativity can even help you find some super trending spreads!

    There are some stocks that lend themselves well to the MV approach tho. Check out AGNC V BMR

    http://www.pairtradinglab.com/backtests/TuEP2VWQ_HCx1cHN

    3.5 PF with 80% winners :)
     
    #2447     Dec 8, 2011
  8. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Shan I use to sell options for years. I can show you 98% winners. It's the one bad trade I am worried about. That is why co-integration is such bullshit.

    I don't want to find trending pairs either! I want to find stuff you can't back test for!!!!!! That is where ACD comes in. Anything that shows up on a backtest for you will show up at every quant trading desk in the country. I want to find the moves "before" they happen.

    I'm not knocking mean reversion for other people. God knows Don Bright and I have been in the octagon debating this shit for years. It's not a matter of what works, but what longevity it has.
     
    #2448     Dec 8, 2011
  9. Shanb

    Shanb

    Man this market is not letting off...had a bet that BAC would close above 5.50 by the end of the month, looks like we may get below that print relatively soon!
     
    #2449     Dec 8, 2011
  10. Quon

    Quon

    Look at the TLT. If we close above today's OR we'll have a 9 on the number line... for December alone, (not the 30 day I typically use)!
     
    #2450     Dec 8, 2011