Oh come on. Don't be so hard on yourself. Let's do this: do you think the s&p is going higher or lower by the end of the week?
Well I'm just getting back in to using ACD, so I don't have the full picture using the methodology. However, based on some chart analysis: I see increasing volume on the recent swing up to resistance. No blow off volume at resistance. A small pennant pattern on lower than average volume just under said resistance. Maybe get a retail holiday push. Maybe get a push from under performing fund managers chasing alpha. I'm thinking a little bullish, if resistance breaks. One of my weakness is inter-market analysis, which is something I'm looking to add using ACD methods. And I suck at fundamentals. Now all that being said, my job is to be the market's bitch. I go where it tells me. If it wants to go higher, I'll find a decent place to get in and let it take me there. If not, I'm more than willing to follow it lower. I like using ratio debit spreads, so I don't need entries to the tick or be johnny on the spot with breakouts. I have little faith in my ability to PREDICT, but enough confidence in my ability to REACT with discipline and mitigate risk.
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Being the market's "bitch" is a bit strong. More empowering is a view similar to an NFL defense. Read, and react. This is what you do. The offense will get 3 to 5 yards per play if you read wrong. But you can get some sacks, and maybe even some take aways. Build a good defense, the rest will take care of itself. ACD is a most powerful defense. Go in there, day in and day out, and you will have a winning record. Defense wins championships in the the NFL, and in trading.
Everything looks to be near the top end or bottom end of their respective ranges. Tech is showing relative weakness again...so watching this for some cues on if we get some follow through!