Lol i loved that candidness on his part in the video-- straight up with no sugar coat- he has zero ego... thats what makes him so respected.
Risk on ETF: down about 1/2% today with 284k shares traded. Risk off ETF: up about 1/2% today with 106k shares traded.
Hello Everyone, I discovered this thread 4 days back and have been reading it daily since. This seems like a very fine thread to me. I don't know anything about the ACD method, but some of the other ideas I read about like looking at spreads (XLF-SPY) sound very interesting. Let me start with my first contribution to this thread. For trading today's NFP, a hedged trade would be to buy 100,000 usdjpy and sell 1 ES contract. Current prices: USDJPY 78.00, ES 1157. Case 1: If NFP comes out way better than expected, USDJPY will spike 70-120 pips and ES will spike 15-25 points. Book USDJPY profits and leave ES short open. In a day or two once we get some bad news from Europe ES will be back at 1157 or even lower. There is also a strong possibility that ES might sell off today itself after the initial euphoria of good payrolls number is behind us in half an hour or at open. Because a lot of good news (good ADP numbers, swap cut etc.) is already being reflected in ES. Case 2: If NFP comes bad, USDJPY and ES go down, make money on ES and leave USDJPY position. You might have to hold this USDJPY position for 3-6 days. BoJ has been buying USDJPY and has been doing continuous market intervention in smaller volume since the last big one. So, in next 3-6 days, USDJPY will be back at 78 and then trade can be exited.
Thank you! Yes, its definitely risk-on for now.....will be interesting to see what happens if we get a good number in NFP. I have a feeling today might be a classic case of buy the rumor sell the facts. It might be a good trade to leave a short order around 70-75 on ES, with the hope that it gets hit in the initial reaction to a good number.
Failed A ups in the Euro and the Aussie on the jobs number. Bonds holding a bid despite the lift in ES.
Here is the overnight charts of both the Euro and Aussie. Both appeared to have just bounced off their daily pivots.
Here are my monthly levels for various products: ES 1201 and 1286 CL 95.38 and 104.66 ZB 137'22 and 143'28 NG 3.405 and 3.825 HG 3.3468 and 3.7702 AAPL 368 and 401.74 6E 1.3212 and 1.3727 6A .9876 and 1.0509 If anyone wants any other products, let me know.