The ACD Method

Risk on ETF did 330k shares today.

Risk off did 66k.

Not bad for a first day.

 

Just a reminder, Mark Fisher will be on Fast Money in a few minutes. I know the King is going to tape it!

 

Love it, Fisher referencing Bad News Good Action on BAC and financials.

 

tell me about the bonds!!

 

Coming up Fisher is going to give out a massive currency trade for RCG!

 

I will not be seeing it as I deliberately do not own a television.

Guys, check out some of the other threads. This Central bank scheme caught folks off guard, lol.

Smurf calls it a black swan.

As bad as I wanted to, I did not post links to this thread, where every currency trader who follows ACD would have caught either the Aussie or the Euro, regardless of signal generator.

I was afraid of bringing trolls with me if I boasted.

We have the best thread on ET, for every type of trader, bar none.

 

I'll post the video once CNBC puts it up. Unless the King beats me to it! This show is a classic.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45499375/

This Commodity Near Level of Ridiculousness: Top Trader
Published: Wednesday, 30 Nov 2011 | 6:14 PM ET

His name may not be familiar to Main Street, but on Wall Street it’s widely known and widely respected.

We’re talking about Mark Fisher, the Founder/CEO of MBF Clearing Corp.

Fisher started as a ‘runner’ on the floor of the COMEX in the 1980’s and over the years his aptitude for trading made him among the most respected money pros in the world.

Fisher is also a student of the markets as well as author of “The Logical Trader: Applying A Method to The Madness.”

On Wednesday November 30th Fisher joined the Fast Money gang on the desk for the hour-long Fast at 5 broadcast.

Because it’s not unusual for pro traders to analyze his every move, we thought you might appreciate having his latest comments all in one place, to more easily glean insights.

Mark Fisher's thoughts on four major trading themes follow:

1. Sharp Stock Market Rally

Fisher thinks the S&P [.SPX 1246.96 51.77 (+4.33%) ] continues to rally but he’s not sure for how long. “Right now, I think money managers are caught under-invested,” he says.

That suggests into the end of the year the market will see a chase for performance.

However he also thinks the rally hits a wall. “I don’t know if the rally ends in December or January but I think it ends.”

2. Nat Gas

If you’re short nat gas [NGCV1 3.574 0.024 (+0.68%) ] you might want to cover. Fisher tells us that nat gas is approaching a level of ‘ridiculousness.’

He sees nat gas climbing in both the short-term and long-term.

”Over the next 2-4 weeks, I think we see a weather scare that will cause nat gas to jump. And in the long-term, he says, “I’m probably early but I think we’re near the start of a big bull market in nat gas.”

3. Crude Oil

Fisher doesn’t think investors who trade oil [CLCV1 100.58 0.22 (+0.22%) ] understand the significance of events underway in the Mideast.

”Investors are underestimating the importance of what's happening in Iran. If something happened to Iranian production, whether an embargo or whatever, we could see the price of oil jump as much as $25 in time minutes.”

4. Banks

It might be worth putting BofA [BAC 5.44 0.37 (+7.3%) ] on the radar.

Fisher tells us that “BofA under $5 is almost like a bet on the United States.” “BofA under $5 is like Citi under $1,” he says.

We take that to mean around $5 the path of least resistance for BofA should be higher because the only thing that would drive the stock much lower would be a belief that the government won’t backstop the firm – and Fisher doesn’t see that scenario playing out in any capacity.

 

Fisher, Gartman: New Way to Bet on Volatility


Commodities traders Mark Fisher and CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman launched two exchange-traded notes (ETNs) on Wednesday that allow retail investors make quick wagers on the risk sentiment in the marketplace.

The securities—one for "risk on" and one for "risk off"—are a bet by the two veteran traders that global markets will continue to be subject to extreme day-to-day volatility.

“The Risk On ETN’s value is expected to rise when the outlook on markets and the broader economy is positive and to decrease when such outlook is negative,” according to a document by UBS, their partner in the new products.

“The Risk Off ETN’s value is expected to rise when the outlook on markets and the broader economy is negative and to decrease when such outlook is positive.”

The securities, based on a risk index created by the two through MBF Index holdings, began trading on the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday with the catchy tickers “ONN” [ONN 25.73 1.73 (+7.21%) ] and “OFF” [OFF 24.30 0.30 (+1.25%) ]. The Risk Off ETN tracks the inverse of the index.

Gartman and Fisher set out to assign a formula that defines the phrases “risk on day” and “risk off day” that have become standard lexicon on Wall Street.

For example, the risk index’s largest weightings are in global equities, oil [CLCV1 100.56 0.20 (+0.2%) ] and the euro [EUR=X 1.3445 0.0007 (+0.05%) ]. The index has short weightings (bets against) sovereign bonds and the Swiss franc [FXF 108.15 0.78 (+0.73%) ].

To be sure, the new products are likely to face their share of criticism as profiting from, or—at their worst—promoting a volatile environment where buy and hold has no place and policy and economic uncertainty reigns.

Leveraged exchange traded funds that bet against the financials, like the Direxion Russell 1000 Financials Bearish 3X ETF [FAZ 41.329 -8.871 (-17.67%) ], have received similar blame for exaggerating the moves in the underlying stocks and perpetuating a panic mentality.

Also, the Gartman-Fisher creations are entering what some may argue is already a crowded marketplace. The number of ETF-related products released in October was 26, according to research by Birinyi Associates, bringing the total number of funds to 1,345 with $1 trillion under management.

But UBS seems to be placing a bet on the star power of the index creators, as well as the uniqueness of a product that can give retail investors this kind of broad exposure across different markets with one click.

From its humble beginnings via fax in 1987, Dennis Gartman’s The Gartman Letter has become standard reading for traders around the world. The newsletter is known for in-depth analysis of global politics and the author’s daily prolificacy.


At one time, Fisher’s MBF Clearing Corp handled more than a fifth of the volume on the NYMEX exchange. The press shy trader graduated summa cum laude from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania.

Legendary hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones called Fisher’s 2002 book, Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness, a must read for beginning traders.

* Gartman is a paid contributor for CNBC.

 

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