I don't pay attention to the number line personally, not negating it all. I appreciate Mav putting the numbers up cotton has been very weak and shows a strong negative line from Mavs work. I think the issue is to keep it simple, if it adds to your analysis then great if it confuses you throw it out. By the way if you take the high and low of the year and average them in spy you get 122.30.
pretty dead day here in the equity market...Mav your the option guy around here, what do you think about this website? http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php The idea's that the underlying will settle where it inflicts the most pain to the option buyers....what do you think?
I've never been a fan of max pain theory. For every circumstance where it appears to be useful there are just as many where it's not. Random! There is some credibility to the idea that high open interest strikes do attract price on or near expiration due to the gamma scalping. The strike acts like an orbit where if price is inside the orbit it gets pulled in. But if it's not close enough it's irrelevant.
My take on the market today is nothing to do. Copper is holding up well but oil got smacked. Bonds made an A down but bounced back, still well off their highs. The Aussie is holding up as is AAPL, my two tells. Just as in poker, spotting tells is really important. The key is to spot tells no one else sees. Your tell can't be the ES selling off!!!! LOL. Your job as a trader is to be a detective and look for clues. Commodities continue to get sold. Cotton, Coco, Sugar all breaking down. As I said before, this smells like a hedge fund liquidation to me. Possibly MF related. Gold and Silver seem to have stabilized. Nat Gas moving back to the lows. Grains sitting on their monthly A downs. OJ and Coffee are strong.