For us slow pokes, how do people feel about the USO as a proxy for CL? Don't trade futures... yet... and I'm looking for a "pure" play on CL. OXY has been working nicely, but with the chop in the ES it's faltered as of late. USO kept rocking despite the past two days. Many thanks all in advance!
USO is fine for daytrading. You need to be careful when oil goes into contango because you pay the roll yield if you are going to just hold it. When oil goes into backwardation then you earn the roll yield. The curve is currently pretty flat now so you can hold USO but you need to always check on that. There is also OIL ETF, but there is less volume then USO.
Thanks Mav, Yeah, I worry about the spreads in the OIL ETF versus the USO, but I didn't know about the contango roll yield effect. Thanks for the heads up.
http://org.elon.edu/ipe/Dimitrova final.pdf The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Studied in a Multivariate Model Desislava Dimitrova, The College of Wooster
Yes indeed. Was long AUD/USD futures yesterday, now at intraday A up, crossing weekly A down (less relevant on a Friday). Not easy to add 25% of position, particularly on a Friday. May hold off on that.
Looking more and more likely we end the year north of 1300 on the S&P and north of $100 on Crude Oil.
Here is my London AUD/USD chart. Solid confirmed A up today and solid bounce off the monthly A down now.