Monster A up today on CL. Caught some of it. Also a nice A up in YM tho it cant seem to get above 25907 to go positive. I had CL in as a zero number line in my short term Macro (5 day, 10 day). Also had the trend as mixed (neutral) so I thought CL was looking for a direction. Would not be surprised if CL found its way back to 67.70-68.00 as that has been a magnetic number for it for the past few days.
Live Cattle gave an A down as well that trended down nicely with a welcome pick up in volume. It has been trending well for the past two days and is filling the gap down that could take it further down to 108.90.
Live Cattle is in the middle of nowhere right now, chopping and slopping in the monthly OR, having very unimpressive numberlines. However ZB is going down nicely with all kinds of confirmations of weakness. I sold ZB short today and spread it against long Aussie dollar.
As a day trade, live Cattle has been giving up nice profits. Its in a nice range and is trending. Longer term, yes, its stuck. Nice short on ZB. But CL made the move! Im out as I have no desire to be in on Wednesdays with the inventory report due out. have a great rest of the day.
It's nice to have it go your way, but in spread trading this is not the be all and end all. It can go against you and you will still gain if the other leg is even weaker. For example, in the 6A/ZB spread ZB could go up (against my position) but if 6A is stronger, 6A will go even higher and the end result is still positive. So basically it boils down to determining what is weaker and what is stronger in relation to each other. In this particular case ZB had confirmed weakness and 6A is the strongest correlated market among those that I follow.
Yes, but not on an ACD basis. In response to an earlier post about establishing an O.R.--somewhere M.F. talks about the New York open as well. I like to watch both, with the New York perhaps being less significant. I like to see confirmation in N.Y. On Friday mornings I've noticed that any trend begun in London will sputter right after the open. You'll get a push and it will fade quickly. Untested, just an observation. This morning you got confirmation, but it was a somewhat anemic move typical of a Monday. I was short Usdcad trading off of the Euro. Euro held the open, I shorted more. Everything stalled, I took my first target just above 1.30 flat. As far as usdjpy I'm expecting vol around this 1.12 as it seems a little obvious. M.F.s use of a time stop on trades always comes to mind. . . I would say that those two things-- opening range and awareness of time have helped my trading. I'm more apt to exit a trade now if it's not moving as it should.
Yes, I'm aware of the New York open but I don't watch it as I am not a day trader, my horizon is much longer. In my case, the A levels are such that if a level is confirmed, the probability that the market will settle in the same direction is 80% (a fact derived from my records, not just observation). So if I get a confirmed London level, I have quite a high level of confidence. That being said, the Yen didn't confirm anything today. It has a very nice monthly confirmation and numberline. It bounced off the A up early and I was anticipating an A down (-3 day for yen). I shorted the Yen (expressed the position through a more favorable cross-rate, not the obvious USD/JPY). However yen returned and remains in the OR as of this moment. Despite this fact, the P&L from the cross-rate I'm in is still positive (the other, stronger leg pulled it up; I don't want long USD as the dollar index is in the negative territory currently). Neither Euro, nor Canadian dollar is on my radar at the moment. The month is halfway over but they haven't made any attempts to make any monthly A level and both have unimpressive numberline values (+1 and +2 respectively). They're just range trading.
You're welcome to come over to USD index thread if you want to post any forex observations. Not trying to steal any customers from Mav, just sayin. I read this thread from time to time(obviously) but dont have much to say in terms of ACD and currencies. USD is more stream of consciousness if you will. Starting to attract some talent I think. Like hearing any intelligent discourse on any market.