Funny, a week or two ago I read an interesting story how the crude oil was heavily manipulated by the traders. At the times referenced Mark and his firm would have been a part of that. It was a fairly good referenced story, but that doesn't mean it was completely accurate, but was easily believeable at the very least in part. It is a lot easier to be a genius in a market if you are part of a group manipulating. It makes your methods a lot better if you have control of a market.\ That being said I use my variation of his methods in the 6E and ES and I have been adding value to bottom line, so I guess there is some validity to his work.
The idea of the energy market being manipulated seems like a bit of a stretch to me. since the 90's, trillions of dollars have been injected into the US economy. There was once a time in this country where these dollars went into things company sponsored pension plans, infrastructure investments, business startups, employee wage increases and the like. Gradually, these dollars flowed into various paper pushing activities and leveraged finance on all levels. The massive bubble that popped when tech stocks went down sent trillions in capital out of the market with no place to go. Add to that the constant printing press under Bernanke, and it makes perfect sense why physical asset prices have skyrocketed.
Can anyone who trades CL using this method share some charts of recent trades they took and explain them?
Excerpt from the book "The Asylum": "You know how I know when someone's cut out to be a trader?" Mark Fisher remarked, hard at work at the time on an untitled screenplay about his concept of a dream trader. "If he can tell me, without looking, the exact time, what the temperature is outside, what I ate an hour ago, what I wore to work yesterday, and what the score to the ball game is on TV." Fisher loved whiz kids, which was why he once poached a young man driving an ice cream truck in his hometown of Woodmere, New York. "True story," a former associate says. "Fish is hosting his son's birthday party on Long Island and orders a bunch of ice cream for it. The ice cream guy comes and Fish watches him do all the math in his head for, like, $500 worth of orders. Right there, he pulls him out of the truck, teaches him how to trade, and puts him on the trading floor. And I understand that guy did very well."
If you have looked thru the thread you will see that there is no holy grail (although for me a trending market is THE HOLY GRAIL). Most of the stuff covered in ACD is along the lines of system trading 101. I am sure "the Fish" would tell you the same. Alot of the indicators etc are really giving you the same information. New traders are always looking for the perfect moving average, the 20 vs 50 is going to work better or worse depending on timeframe. Look at the markets this way, if you were forced to make a trade right now what would it be?what is a good entry, R/R, should you go for a scalp, a swing, how does the volatility effect the position, etc. Using a case study mentality on a given mkt will help keep your losses small. Not sure why you would want to trade crude for example, I think it is a tough market to trade, don't believe me check out some of the price spikes on qm, How do you quantify the trendiness of a mkt, what should your position size be. I could go on and on. I would tell you to pick one or two mkts/contracts/stocks and focus on them. Can you tell the difference between the price action on AAPL vs GOOG, C vs AIG, a good trader will see the difference in the tape movement etc. Anyway just some thoughts, one thing I noticed about Mark Fisher from watching him trade for charity was that he always hedged himself. ie he would buy oil and sell gas, why would he do that? If you can't answer that question you need to keep trading small and study, good luck with your trading either way.
no I am referring to his trade for charity, I think Dr J from the CBOE put it on and had Mr Fisher as a guest over the past couple years, I will look for a link when I get a minute. My point was he always appears to be hedged, ie he is long spuz, short bonds, etc. I remember him doing the same with corn/wheat. here is the link to Dr J's site re MF. Too bad he can't put up a video of this, if he charged like $50 per use he could make some $$ for the kids, well worth it for a new/old trader. http://www.traders4kids.org/