The ACD Method

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sbrowne126, Jul 16, 2009.

  1. #13791     Dec 17, 2017
  2. Maverick74


    #13792     Dec 17, 2017
  3. Maverick74


    #13793     Dec 17, 2017
  4. sle


    #13794     Dec 17, 2017
  5. Cheers Mav I am always lurking around in the shadows :)
    #13795     Dec 17, 2017
  6. #13797     Dec 29, 2017
  7. Maverick74


    #13798     Jan 8, 2018
    SteveM likes this.
  8. Maverick74


    So I'm guess I'm the only one that listened to the webcast. I thought it was outstanding. I'll try to review the main points here. While Gundlach wants to believe this bull market is nearing an end and that a recession has to be on the horizon sooner rather then later, he sees no empirical evidence that a recession is coming in the next 12 months. He does believe this bull market is late cycle and make some excellent comments about the most optimal way to play it. He made a strong bull case for commodities and anyone with access to charts can see the commodity bid. More importantly he showed the evidence that historically there are strong bull commodity runs in the late stages of credit cycles. This trade looks like a win win. If economic strength continues longer then it should, commodities are cheap from a valuation perspective. In fact, relative to stocks they have not been this cheap since the early 1980's. If doom and gloom is closer then we think, then it's likely we will see explosive gains in commodities. Either way, he believes (and I agree), that commodities will outperform equities.

    Other comments, yes, he thinks rates will end the year near the higher end of the range. He's bearish on Bitcoin, bearish on the dollar, expects a strong first half in equities and a bearish 2nd half. Still likes emerging markets. Seemed indifferent on the 2/10s steepening or flattening. Presented a lot of nice charts on various economic indicators. Almost none of them pointed towards a recession in the next 12 months.
    #13799     Jan 10, 2018
    kinggyppo, MoneyMatthew and sss12 like this.
  9. Thanks for the summary, I'm betting on a 4.0000 print happening in Copper this year (2018). I'm very bullish on copper. Gundlach's outlook on explosive gains in commodities only further corroborates the flight path. Houston, we have liftoff!
    #13800     Jan 11, 2018