Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sbrowne126, Jul 16, 2009.
Brilliant pod cast for you guys here;
Good to see you back! I'll check it out.
In case you guys missed it, Jeffrey Gundlach gave a great interview on Friday about 2018 on CNBC.
This link has some of the main points as well as links to parts of the interview.
Good stuff! Thanks! Interesting that he thinks risk-parity is gonna break down this time around
Cheers Mav I am always lurking around in the shadows
Pointless. Just buy the SPY
Tomorrow Jeffrey Gundlach gives his famous 2018 outlook webcast. You can watch it free here.
I highly suggest that you all tune in. His forecasts are about as good as you are going to find available for free.
So I'm guess I'm the only one that listened to the webcast. I thought it was outstanding. I'll try to review the main points here. While Gundlach wants to believe this bull market is nearing an end and that a recession has to be on the horizon sooner rather then later, he sees no empirical evidence that a recession is coming in the next 12 months. He does believe this bull market is late cycle and make some excellent comments about the most optimal way to play it. He made a strong bull case for commodities and anyone with access to charts can see the commodity bid. More importantly he showed the evidence that historically there are strong bull commodity runs in the late stages of credit cycles. This trade looks like a win win. If economic strength continues longer then it should, commodities are cheap from a valuation perspective. In fact, relative to stocks they have not been this cheap since the early 1980's. If doom and gloom is closer then we think, then it's likely we will see explosive gains in commodities. Either way, he believes (and I agree), that commodities will outperform equities.
Other comments, yes, he thinks rates will end the year near the higher end of the range. He's bearish on Bitcoin, bearish on the dollar, expects a strong first half in equities and a bearish 2nd half. Still likes emerging markets. Seemed indifferent on the 2/10s steepening or flattening. Presented a lot of nice charts on various economic indicators. Almost none of them pointed towards a recession in the next 12 months.
Thanks for the summary, I'm betting on a 4.0000 print happening in Copper this year (2018). I'm very bullish on copper. Gundlach's outlook on explosive gains in commodities only further corroborates the flight path. Houston, we have liftoff!
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