On the attached you can see that the Energy etf ... XLE, has just turned up into the Market Type that Van Tharp describes as Bull. In addition I think it could be argued that the end of day chart pattern is a successful expanded John Hill type "Spring", that signals upside. However my number line is also a -2 so there's that too. "I like to watch."
Wow - vacuumed right down to the monthly A-down and now getting a bounce 3-ticks below the A-down.....remarkable...../ES would need to close below 2564.25 to confirm the monthly A-down.
On Friday’s close, the Naz was best performer over the last 3 weeks, and best in show for the year. As measured by Market Type, the Dow is the strongest of the indices and the SPX a strong second. In the Sectors it’s Aerospace/Defense, Home Construction, Semiconductor and Technology showing the most strength.
Looking at sectors tonight I can’t help but wonder if Biotech (as measured by XBI) has ran its race for the year? It’s been one of the better sector performers so far ….. still up 39.84% as of Friday. But ……. it easily had a weekly A down yesterday. It’s sitting on my monthly A Down of 80.22 and just completed a quarterly A Down (my number is 83.04). More??? It just dropped back below my yearly A up of 82.27 To kick a little more shade at it the Van Tharp described Market Type dropped from Strong Bull to Bull on 10/24/17 and from Bull to Neutral on 11/10/17. (This is the 100 day version but the 25 and 50 are Bear.) Now, on the other hand ….. you can see on the attached that it’s sitting right on top a nearly yearlong bullish support line. (Rubbing my ever drooping McConnell like chin and wondering if it holds here, or at the rising 200 day, or ……?)
Here's a few of the comments to my family and friends (all 3 of them). Regarding the Indices: >Small Cap stocks fought back this week. They’ve lagged most of the indices so far this year but Small Cap Growth Stocks, as measured by the etf IJT, was best in show this week up 2.05% after being worst in show the previous two consecutive weeks. >The Naz is still this year’s King of the Indices, up 29.83% y-t-d, and it won’t be dethroned before the year is out. Look at the 3rd attachment depicting the 100 day Van Tharp style Market Type determination and you’ll see the eleven Major Indices, and the top dog is still the Dow Jones, with second place being SP-500 Growth (IVW). The weakest Index is Mid Cap Value. Regarding the Sectors: >Look at Semiconductor (SMH) which is up 44.12% so far this year. It turned Bull on 5/31/16 and has gone back and forth from Bull to Strong Bull since that time. If you had toe-dipped around July 1st of 2016 and made it a small percent of your portfolio, that portion would now be up 82.5%. Not too bad. Typical mutual funds that mirror SMH are the Fidelity FELAX or Profunds SMPIX. General stuff: >Take the time and make yourself look at the overall Indices and Sectors on the first attachment. If you have a general idea of the top 2 or 3 and the worst 2 or 3 in each category …… then you know more than 99% of the population. Prove it to yourself over holiday drinks this year if the “Market” comes up. You’ll be the expert. : ) >The second attachment is the SP-500 Market Type for the 25, 50, 100 and 200 day direction. You can see that the 25 day has eased back for a breather and ended Friday in the Neutral category. The 50 day is Strong Bull, the 100 day is Bull (really going back and forth with Strong Bull) and the 200 day is Strong Bull. It’s worth noting that the 200 day turned Bull back on 10/21/16 and has been Bull or Strong Bull since that date. Moreover, it’s been Strong Bull since June 23rd. Look at all the last two attachments which highlight the index and sector performance over the last 27 days and it’s “Obvious” (with this info provides) who the strong and weak are. It’s even more obvious that the overall market is damn strong right now and if you’re not heavily invested in your retirement accounts ……. then …… you are missing out on some jack! The Market is in “Quiet” mode. And, when the Market is in Bull/Strong Bull and Quiet mode, it’s the best performer over the last 70 years.
i just started reading this book- "the logical trader" i want to know how to find a and c values of stocks ? and let me know if some one is aplying acd in indian stock market
ZH - In its latest quarterly hedge fund trend monitor - a survey of 804 hedge funds with $2.1 trillion of gross equity positions ($1.4 trillion long and $704 billion short) - which analyzes hedge fund holdings as of Sept 30, Goldman makes some interesting observations about the current state of the hedge fund industry. First and foremost, it finds that the average equity long/short hedge fund has posted a 10% YTD return, which while the strongest since 2013 is once again underperforming the S&P for the 7th consecutive year.