Very helpful from a big picture perspective. If you have the actual data points, I'd be curious to know what percentage fall in the extreme joint categories of "Strong Bull/Very Volatile" and "Strong Bear/Quiet" since most of us would consider those to be non-standard conditions.
Hello OneFive, Did you look at the 3rd attachment? The bottom two graphs show than info as 1) percent of time they occur in each category and 2) average daily return in each category.
Okay then ,.... the chores was moving band equipment but we decided to practice some Tom Petty songs for the big Saturday gig. Tom Petty music is fun to play. I never tire of playing Petty songs. Anyway, we're not done for the night so I'll get to this most boring story a little later. No, wait .... A little of Chapter one: As hard as it is to admit or even discuss, I’m actually a “Two time” failed stock broker. That's right, ....... two times! (Shaking head with downcast eyes.) The first time around, I was a then assistant executive director at a medium sized port authority (huge industrial site, large marina) and my then stock broker good buddy was leaving Edward Jones and opening an AG Edwards Office. He was a huge producer (he showed me his commissions) and told me about the millions of dollars just waiting for me to come and get it. No more public servant with the obsequious "Yes sir" and "Yes Ma'am stuff. No sir! We were going to have so much fun on the Chairman’s best producers special holiday romps that I was counting my money and buying all those things and ....... well Hell, with my contacts ..... how could I lose? He said I was a sure bet to be a successful stockbroker. I had the gift of gab. Yeah ..... yeah I can do this!! So ......
AG Edwards? No shit. That's my neck of the woods. They were headquartered in St. Louis. Where did you live at this time?
Not sure how I missed it--need a bigger phone screen I guess. Reinforces your comment: "Stop and really look at the historical results." Thanks for that.
I didn't know that! So …. I decide okay then, I’ll leave this well-paying government job and go to a commissioned base business I don’t know the first thing about. Logical? AG Edwards was very decent in that they paid me for one month to come into the office and study for all the necessary exams. In that regard, I can guarantee you I’m the dumbest sumbitch on this ACD thread. However, for many years now I’ve followed the advice of Woody Hays: “I've had smarter people around me all my life, but I haven't run into one yet that can outwork me. And if they can't outwork you, then smarts aren't going to do them much good. That's just the way it is. And if you believe that and live by it, you'd be surprised at how much fun you can have.” I’ve attached my S7 score. Now, I know it’s not that good compared to many but I won the office competition because ……. I just out worked them. Then off I went to St. Louis for three weeks of in-house training, in Mid-May, and it was a truly enjoyable experience. Saw many of the usual sights and sounds and really enjoyed the area (except late at night waiting for a taxi). In the classroom I started to understand what I was supposed to do: “Gather assets and earn commissions.” We visited all the departments and what really stuck out was going from the Fundamental Department and then to the Technical Department. They both took shoots at the other. (Even though my degree is in bean counting, I was most intrigued with the technical side.) Biggest regret in St. Louis: Met a young man who had been assisting one of AGs biggest producers, and this huge producer was a William O’Neill follower. This kid really knew his stuff and offered to help me follow how his boss operated. Did I follow up on that?????? So I get back from training and there is a story in the Seattle Times about Tommy Dorsey and his point and figure charts and how he works with stockbrokers to help their clients. So ….. I started reading and studying end of day P&F charting and thought “This might help me”. And, what did my branch manager (a former Edward Jones cult member with no management experience of any kind) think of using P&F charts to help clients and separate myself from the hoard of asset gatherers? “Fuck that … get your ass out on the street and start knocking on doors. That’s how I did it at Edward Jones. Sell fixed income and begin to gather assets. And when you’re not knocking on doors, you’re fucking cold calling.” In my best Bart Simpson voice: “Oh man!!!” Didn’t take me long to realize the “Fear of rejection” and to a lesser degree the “Fear of appearing foolish” were two psychological weak points of mine. (You know, when you’re a finance director or city manager and you call people, they either take the call or promptly call you back. When you’re a green horn broker attempting to gather assets ……. those call backs are a little slower on the comeback.) So, I’m struggling along for six months and a Mayor comes to the office and tells me he wants me as his manager. So, visualize Jerry Seinfeld looking left at “Commission only pay” and then right at “Good pay, benefits, retirement, young family” back and forth, back and forth ……and you know what way I went. That's the first stockbroker failure. Now, the 2nd one .......